What move does the options market price into Applied Materials's report?

Implied ±5.5%, either direction.

How often does Applied Materials move more than the options market prices?

5 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

AMATNasdaqSemiconductors & Related Devices

Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

391.71

Closed19:53 ET

Open402.80Volume10.3MMkt cap$309.6BP/E33.59EPS11.66Div yield0.51%

Day384.57 – 405.2535%52-wk202.28 – 738.8835%

AMAT

Applied Materials Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±5.5%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±6.5%·×0.85·cheap

368.49411.69

straddle ±9.2%

spot 390.09exp Nov 13ATM strike 390ATM straddle 42.10IV 69%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 12

after close · in 11 days

confirmedQ4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−5.12%

vs ±6.3% implied · ×0.81

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 13 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

14.00%

of Benchmark Electronics revenue

supplierBHE 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+7.25%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

3,511 managers

Top fund weight

5.77%

AMAT weight · SOXX

N-PORTJun 30 '26

14 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Applied Materials (AMAT) reports on Nov 12 after close (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

5 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±5.5%
avg realized: ±6.5%

Nov 14 '24Nov 14 '24confirmed±4.7%▼−9.20%×1.96

Feb 13 '25Feb 13 '25confirmed±4.4%▼−8.18%×1.84

May 15 '25May 15 '25confirmed±4.6%▼−5.25%×1.14

Aug 14 '25Aug 14 '25confirmed±4.8%▼−14.07%×2.93

Nov 13 '25Nov 13 '25confirmed±5.1%▲+1.25%×0.25

Q1 FY26Feb 12 '26confirmed±6.8%▲+8.08%×1.18

Q2 FY26May 14 '26confirmed±6.9%▼−0.89%×0.13

Q3 FY26Aug 13 '26confirmed±6.3%▼−5.12%×0.81

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q3 FY26±6.3%▼−5.12%×0.81

Q2 FY26±6.9%▼−0.89%×0.13

Q1 FY26±6.8%▲+8.08%×1.18

Nov '25±5.1%▲+1.25%×0.25

Aug '25±4.8%▼−14.07%×2.93

May '25±4.6%▼−5.25%×1.14

2 older reports

Feb '25±4.4%▼−8.18%×1.84

Nov '24±4.7%▼−9.20%×1.96

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 9 expiries · Oct 28 close

1.59OI · 9 expiries · Oct 28 closeP/C open interest · Nov 13 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

9,557+25%Nov 65d0.8111,730+78%0.81

report · Nov 12 · after close · confirmed

8,870+41%Nov 1312d5,567+113%

40,458+2%Nov 2019d1.2831,503+8%1.28

314+68%Dec 433d1.53205+90%1.53

5 later expiries

38,902+1%Dec 1847d1.3927,973+1%1.39

57,784+3%Jan 1575d1.2944,767+1%1.29

14,3560%Feb 19110d1.708,420+7%1.70

18,323+2%Mar 19138d1.2115,100+1%1.21

7,390+1%Apr 16166d2.492,972+10%2.49

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 65d9,557+25%11,730+78%0.81

report · Nov 12 · after close · confirmed

Nov 1312d8,870+41%5,567+113%1.59

Nov 2019d40,458+2%31,503+8%1.28

Dec 433d314+68%205+90%1.53

5 later expiries

Dec 1847d38,902+1%27,973+1%1.39

Jan 1575d57,784+3%44,767+1%1.29

Feb 19110d14,3560%8,420+7%1.70

Mar 19138d18,323+2%15,100+1%1.21

Apr 16166d7,390+1%2,972+10%2.49

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±9.2%

Funds 4

SOXX±0.5%

SMH±0.5%

SOXL±0.3%

XLK±0.3%

Suppliers 4

ICHR±10.5%×1.15

UCTT±10.2%×1.11

BHE±4.6%

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 500dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

27.84%as filednet margin · revenue +15.23% QoQ · +24.83% YoY

Revenue

$9.1B+15.23% QoQ

Gross profit

$4.6B+16.19% QoQ

50.31% margin

Operating income

$3.1B+21.88% QoQ

33.74% margin

Pre-tax income

$2.9B−9.86% QoQ

Net income

$2.5B−9.55% QoQ

27.84% margin

Cost of revenue

$4.5B+14.28% QoQ

Operating expenses

$1.5B+6.11% QoQ

R&D $1.1B

Marketing $249M

SG&A $162M

Other expense

$168M

Tax

$369M−11.93% QoQ

Revenue$9.1B+15.23%

Gross profit

$4.6B+16.19%

50.31% margin

Operating income

$3.1B+21.88%

33.74% margin

Pre-tax income

$2.9B−9.86%

Net income

$2.5B−9.55%

27.84% margin

Cost of revenue

$4.5B+14.28%

Operating expenses

$1.5B+6.11%

R&D $1.1B

Marketing $249M

SG&A $162M

Other expense

$168M

Tax$369M−11.93%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jul 26 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×2.18· ±4.9% vs ±2.3% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±4.9%6 of 10×2.18

PPIproducer prices±3.0%2 of 11×1.33

GDPgross domestic product±2.8%13 of 20×1.23

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.7%10 of 20×1.21

CPIconsumer prices±2.6%7 of 11×1.14

FOMCrate decision±2.5%16 of 25×1.11

CPROFcorporate profits±2.0%6 of 12×0.91

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±2.3% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.3% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 3.17 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Aug 13 '26 · confirmed	3.17	—
Q2 FY26	May 14 '26 · confirmed	3.51	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 12 '26 · confirmed	2.54	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod