What move does the options market price into Assured Guaranty's report?

Implied ±10.4%, either direction · provisional.

AGONYSESurety Insurance

Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

73.61

+1.85 · +2.58%

post 73.61 0.00%

After hours16:00 ETdelayed

Open71.66Volume505,972Mkt cap$3.2BP/E10.25EPS7.18Div yield2.02%

Day71.66 – 73.61100%52-wk67.24 – 91.0727%

AGO

Assured Guaranty Ltd

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±10.4%implied · straddle

65.8081.10

spot 73.45exp Mar 19ATM strike 75ATM straddle 9.00IV 25%

Nov 6 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 25

before open · in 111 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

Nov 5

after close

confirmedNov 5 close

Implied vs realized

Linked news

3dGS · supplierGoldman Sachs is bullish on stocks. Why it's also telling clients to hold cash near term
10dSPGI · supplierS&P Global Q3 net income $1,240 million, revenue $3,678 million, diluted EPS $4.25

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+0.17%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26129d lag

368 managers

Top fund weight

0.01%

AGO weight · VIG

N-PORTJul 31 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Assured Guaranty (AGO) is expected to report on Feb 25 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

1 report

—≥ implied

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed—▼−8.65%—

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q2 FY26—▼−8.65%—

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 5 expiries · Nov 4 close

1.66OI · 5 expiries · Nov 4 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

8640%Nov 2014d4.341990%4.34

204+1%Dec 1842d2.1993+45%2.19

1,3620%Jan 1570d0.324,3180%0.32

report · Feb 25 · after close · est.

4590%Mar 19133d277+2%

60%Apr 16161d0.35170%0.35

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2014d8640%1990%4.34

Dec 1842d204+1%93+45%2.19

Jan 1570d1,3620%4,3180%0.32

report · Feb 25 · after close · est.

Mar 19133d4590%277+2%1.66

Apr 16161d60%170%0.35

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±10.4%

Funds 3

VIG±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

37.21%as filednet margin · revenue +9.14% QoQ · +3.86% YoY

Revenue

$215M+9.14% QoQ

Gross profit

$215M+9.14% QoQ

100.00% margin

Operating income

$120M+30.43% QoQ

55.81% margin

Pre-tax income

$99M+102.04% QoQ

Net income

$80M+100.00% QoQ

37.21% margin

Operating expenses

$95M−9.52% QoQ

Other operating $53M

SG&A $39M

Other operating $3M

Other expense

$21M

Tax

$19M+111.11% QoQ

Revenue$215M+9.14%

Gross profit

$215M+9.14%

100.00% margin

Operating income

$120M+30.43%

55.81% margin

Pre-tax income

$99M+102.04%

Net income

$80M+100.00%

37.21% margin

Cost of revenue

Operating expenses

$95M−9.52%

Other operating $53M

SG&A $39M

Other operating $3M

Other expense

$21M

Tax$19M+111.11%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 6 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×2.46· ±2.6% vs ±1.1% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±2.6%4 of 10×2.46

CPIconsumer prices±1.3%2 of 11×1.21

FOMCrate decision±1.2%12 of 24×1.10

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.1%8 of 19×1.04

CPROFcorporate profits±0.9%5 of 12×0.86

GDPgross domestic product±0.9%9 of 19×0.83

PPIproducer prices±0.9%4 of 11×0.81

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.75 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	—	1.75	—
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	0.88	—
Q1 FY26	—	1.91	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod