What move does the options market price into Affirm's report?

Implied ±9.1%, either direction.

AFRMNasdaqPersonal Credit Institutions

Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

75.60

+3.63 · +5.04%

post 76.00 +0.53%

After hours16:29 ETdelayed

Open72.36Volume3.4MMkt cap$24.3BP/E13.19EPS5.76

Day71.84 – 77.4175%52-wk42.10 – 90.4470%

AFRM

Affirm Holdings, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±9.1%implied · report alone

68.8782.58

straddle ±9.3%

spot 75.72exp Nov 6ATM strike 76ATM straddle 8.32IV 186%

Nov 4 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

after close · in 1 day

est.Q1 FY27

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+0.35%

vs ±9.5% implied · ×0.04

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 27 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

1hAMZN · customerMicrosoft and Amazon combine for a $400 billion market-cap boost — and these factors show why
20hCRCT · customerCricut posts Q3 net income $27,842 thousand, total revenue $188,622 thousand
1dSHOP · customerShopify falls 7% after Q3 revenue and merchandise volume miss estimates

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+11.85%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

672 managers

Top fund weight

0.34%

AFRM weight · FTC

N-PORTJul 31 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Affirm (AFRM) is expected to report on Nov 5 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

1 report

—≥ implied

Q4 FY26Aug 27 '26confirmed±9.5%▲+0.35%×0.04

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q4 FY26±9.5%▲+0.35%×0.04

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.68OI · 10 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Nov 6 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6,376+103%Nov 62d9,347+80%

1,197+47%Nov 139d0.791,516+57%0.79

21,376+5%Nov 2016d1.0919,660+7%1.09

561+75%Nov 2723d0.71795+201%0.71

43+26%Dec 430d1.1039+457%1.10

5 later expiries

19—Dec 1137d0.5137—0.51

24,720+2%Dec 1844d1.14

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 62d6,376+103%9,347+80%0.68

Nov 139d1,197+47%1,516+57%0.79

Nov 2016d21,376+5%19,660+7%1.09

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±9.3%

Funds 4

FTC±0.0%

JEPI±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

derived from FYQ4 FY26

138.65%derived from FYnet margin · revenue +12.24% QoQ · +33.04% YoY

Revenue$1.2B+12.24%

Gross profit$1.2B100.00%+12.24%

Operating income$147M12.63%+66.53%

Pre-tax income$169M+57.48%

Net income$1.6B138.65%+1471.05%

Operating expenses$1.0B+7.19%

Tax−$1.4B−32439.61%

Other income$22M+15.22%

Derived: FY − Q1–Q3 · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.42· ±4.8% vs ±3.4% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±4.8%3 of 10×1.42

FOMCrate decision±4.1%13 of 24×1.20

NFPjobs report±3.7%4 of 10×1.09

CPIconsumer prices±2.7%5 of 10×0.80

GDPgross domestic product±2.4%9 of 19×0.70

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.3%9 of 19×0.68

CPROFcorporate profits±2.2%5 of 12×0.65

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±3.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±3.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 4.63 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q4 FY26	Aug 27 '26 · confirmed	4.63	—
Q3 FY26	—	0.30	—
Q2 FY26	—	0.37	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod