What move does the options market price into Aflac's report?

Implied ±2.6%, either direction.

How often does Aflac move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

AFLNYSEAccident & Health Insurance

Aflac Inc (AFL) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

124.58

−0.01 · −0.01%

post 123.75 −0.66%

After hours15:59 ETdelayed

Open123.76Volume1.8MMkt cap$62.5BP/E13.31EPS9.30Div yield1.93%

Day123.76 – 125.220%52-wk103.32 – 129.5778%

AFL

Aflac Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±2.6%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±3.3%·×0.80·cheap

120.77127.31

straddle ±3.0%

spot 124.04exp Nov 6ATM strike 124ATM straddle 4.32IV 48%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 4

after close · in 1 day

confirmedQ3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−1.62%

vs ±3.0% implied · ×0.54

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 6 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

1dLIFE · customerEthos posts Q3 revenue of $235.2 million and net income of $4.7 million

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.20%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

1,704 managers

Top fund weight

0.71%

AFL weight · XLF

N-PORTJun 30 '26

10 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Aflac (AFL) reports on Nov 4 after close (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±3.3%
avg realized: ±3.3%

Oct 30 '24Oct 30 '24confirmed±3.5%▼−4.81%×1.37

Feb 5 '25Feb 5 '25confirmed±3.7%▼−3.92%×1.07

Apr 30 '25Apr 30 '25confirmed±4.0%▼−4.75%×1.20

Aug 5 '25Aug 5 '25confirmed±3.7%▲+3.43%×0.92

Q3 FY25Nov 4 '25confirmed±2.6%▲+2.23%×0.84

Feb 4 '26Feb 4 '26confirmed±2.6%▲+3.39%×1.31

Q1 FY26Apr 29 '26confirmed±3.4%▼−2.19%×0.64

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±3.0%▼−1.62%×0.54

quarterimplied−5%0+5%realized×

Q2 FY26±3.0%▼−1.62%×0.54

Q1 FY26±3.4%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Nov 3 close

1.20OI · 10 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Nov 6 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

422+215%Nov 63d351+6%

66+12%Nov 1310d0.23282+4%0.23

1,819−1%Nov 2017d0.238,0710%0.23

1020%Nov 2724d0.23436−2%0.23

9+125%Dec 431d0.1367+12%0.13

5 later expiries

30%Dec 1138d1.502—1.50

1,237+4%Dec 1845d0.27

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 63d422+215%351+6%1.20

Nov 1310d66+12%282+4%0.23

Nov 2017d1,819−1%8,0710%0.23

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±3.0%

Funds 4

XLF±0.0%

VIG±0.0%

RSP±0.0%

VTV±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

20.04%as filednet margin · revenue −5.27% QoQ · +5.32% YoY

Revenue$4.1B−5.27%

Pre-tax income$995M−18.78%

Net income$825M20.04%−19.04%

Tax$170M−17.48%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mVolume ×0.77 · 20d avgSource: market data · 15:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.27· ±1.1% vs ±0.9% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±1.1%5 of 10×1.27

GDPgross domestic product±1.0%11 of 19×1.16

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.0%11 of 19×1.15

FOMCrate decision±0.9%11 of 24×1.05

CPIconsumer prices±0.9%3 of 10×0.98

CPROFcorporate profits±0.8%8 of 12×0.93

PPIproducer prices±0.8%3 of 10×0.86

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±0.9% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±0.9% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.63 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	1.63	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 29 '26 · confirmed	1.98	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 4 '25 · confirmed	3.08	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod