What move does the options market price into Adobe's report?

Implied ±2.8%, either direction.

How often does Adobe move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

ADBENasdaqServices-Prepackaged Software

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

239.24

−7.20 · −2.92%

post 238.91 −0.14%

After hours16:31 ETdelayed

Open241.59Volume5.8MMkt cap$95.9BP/E13.32EPS17.94

Day238.91 – 242.930%52-wk190.12 – 362.7128%

ADBE

Adobe Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±2.8%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±6.4%·×0.43·cheap

235.41248.84

straddle ±10.0%

spot 242.13exp Dec 11ATM strike 240ATM straddle 28.63IV 48%

Nov 6 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Dec 9

after close · in 33 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+1.37%

vs ±7.1% implied · ×0.19

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Sep 10 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

2dZG · customerZillow posts quarterly net loss of $158 million on revenue of $724 million
2dINGM · customerIngram Micro sells 11,000,000 shares at $25.90; repurchases 1,000,000
7dDV · customerDoubleVerify Q3 net income $15,929 thousand, revenue $205,638 thousand

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+11.78%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26129d lag

2,004 managers

Top fund weight

1.73%

ADBE weight · IGPT

N-PORTJul 31 '26

13 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Adobe (ADBE) is expected to report on Dec 9 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±6.9%
avg realized: ±6.4%

Dec 11 '24Dec 11 '24confirmed±6.6%▼−13.69%×2.07

Mar 12 '25Mar 12 '25confirmed±6.8%▼−13.85%×2.03

Jun 12 '25Jun 12 '25confirmed±6.2%▼−5.32%×0.85

Q3 FY25Sep 11 '25confirmed±8.6%▼−0.34%×0.04

Q4 FY25Dec 10 '25confirmed±5.9%▲+2.13%×0.36

Q1 FY26Mar 12 '26confirmed±5.9%▼−7.58%×1.28

Q2 FY26Jun 11 '26confirmed±7.7%▼−6.76%×0.88

Q3 FY26Sep 10 '26confirmed±7.1%▲+1.37%×0.19

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q3 FY26±7.1%▲+1.37%×0.19

Q2 FY26±7.7%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 11 expiries · Nov 4 close

1.49OI · 11 expiries · Nov 4 closeP/C open interest · Dec 11 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

3 nearer expiries

8,396+12%Nov 60d1.048,089+9%1.04

4,265+7%Nov 137d0.805,332+19%0.80

28,3650%Nov 2014d0.4562,8760%0.45

1,562+2%Nov 2721d0.951,646+20%0.95

589+408%Dec 428d1.59370+198%1.59

report · Dec 9 · after close · est.

3 later expiries

4,657+1%Feb 19105d0.786,0050%0.78

13,180+3%Mar 19133d1.15

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

3 nearer expiries

Nov 60d8,396+12%8,089+9%1.04

Nov 137d4,265+7%5,332+19%0.80

Nov 2014d28,3650%62,876

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±10.0%

Funds 4

IGPT±0.2%

XLK±0.0%

QQQ±0.0%

RSP±0.0%

Suppliers 1

DLB±2.5%×0.25

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 500dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

27.03%as filednet margin · revenue +2.15% QoQ · +12.89% YoY

Revenue

$6.8B+2.15% QoQ

Gross profit

$6.0B+1.59% QoQ

88.71% margin

Operating income

$2.4B+5.18% QoQ

34.82% margin

Pre-tax income

$2.4B+5.32% QoQ

Net income

$1.8B+6.72% QoQ

27.03% margin

Cost of revenue

$763M+6.71% QoQ

Operating expenses

$3.6B−0.60% QoQ

Marketing $1.8B

R&D $1.3B

SG&A $488M

Other operating $40M

Tax

$530M+0.76% QoQ

Other income

$3M

Revenue$6.8B+2.15%

Gross profit

$6.0B+1.59%

88.71% margin

Operating income

$2.4B+5.18%

34.82% margin

Pre-tax income

$2.4B+5.32%

Net income

$1.8B+6.72%

27.03% margin

Cost of revenue

$763M+6.71%

Operating expenses

$3.6B−0.60%

Marketing $1.8B

R&D $1.3B

SG&A $488M

Other income$3M

Tax$530M+0.76%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Aug 28 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 6 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 16:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.75· ±2.7% vs ±1.6% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±2.7%5 of 11×1.75

NFPjobs report±2.4%3 of 10×1.55

CPIconsumer prices±2.0%4 of 11×1.29

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.0%11 of 20×1.26

FOMCrate decision±1.9%8 of 24×1.21

GDPgross domestic product±1.6%8 of 20×1.02

CPROFcorporate profits±1.3%5 of 12×0.83

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.6% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.6% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 4.62 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Sep 10 '26 · confirmed	4.62	—
Q2 FY26	Jun 11 '26 · confirmed	4.25	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 12 '26 · confirmed	4.60	—
Q4 FY25	Dec 10 '25 · confirmed	5.50	—

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod