What move does the options market price into Apple's report?

Implied ±3.7%, either direction.

How often does Apple move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

AAPLNasdaqElectronic Computers

Apple Inc. (AAPL) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

345.14

Closed19:58 ET

Open350.92Volume67.8MMkt cap$5.1TP/E39.40EPS8.76Div yield0.31%

Day341.87 – 350.9236%52-wk242.76 – 351.7394%

AAPL

Apple Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±3.7%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±2.5%·×1.50·rich

331.96357.30

straddle ±4.0%

spot 344.63exp Nov 6ATM strike 345ATM straddle 16.35IV 43%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

after close · in 5 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−7.35%

vs ±3.2% implied · ×2.29

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Jul 30 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

91.00%

of Cirrus Logic revenue

supplierCRUS 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.30%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

6,161 managers

Top fund weight

12.85%

AAPL weight · XLK

N-PORTJun 30 '26

16 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Apple (AAPL) is expected to report on Nov 5 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±3.4%
avg realized: ±2.5%

Oct 31 '24Oct 31 '24confirmed±3.3%▼−1.33%×0.40

Jan 30 '25Jan 30 '25confirmed±3.5%▼−0.67%×0.19

May 1 '25May 1 '25confirmed±3.7%▼−3.74%×1.01

Q3 FY25Jul 31 '25confirmed±3.8%▼−2.50%×0.66

Q4 FY25Oct 30 '25confirmed±2.8%▼−0.38%×0.13

Q1 FY26Jan 29 '26confirmed±3.8%▲+0.46%×0.12

Q2 FY26Apr 30 '26confirmed±3.3%▲+3.24%×0.98

Q3 FY26Jul 30 '26confirmed±3.2%▼−7.35%×2.29

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q3 FY26±3.2%▼−7.35%×2.29

Q2 FY26±3.3%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 13 expiries · Oct 29 close

1.44OI · 13 expiries · Oct 29 closeP/C open interest · Nov 6 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

12,090+26%Nov 44d0.3831,819+27%0.38

report · Nov 5 · after close · est.

80,966+8%Nov 66d56,182+5%

1,017+93%Nov 99d1.02999+27%1.02

15,275+7%Nov 1313d0.6124,840+12%0.61

9 later expiries

265,1900%Nov 2020d0.77346,497+1%0.77

12,228—Nov 2727d2.32

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 44d12,090+26%31,819+27%0.38

report · Nov 5 · after close · est.

Nov 66d80,966+8%56,182+5%1.44

Nov 99d1,017+93%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±4.0%

Funds 4

XLK±0.5%

VUG±0.5%

REVS±0.3%

QQQ±0.3%

Suppliers 2

QRVO±3.2%×0.78

NWSA±1.3%×0.31

Customers 1

BBY±2.3%×0.57

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

27.23%as filednet margin · revenue −1.59% QoQ · +16.36% YoY

Revenue

$109B−1.59% QoQ

Gross profit

$54.8B−0.02% QoQ

50.06% margin

Operating income

$35.7B−0.53% QoQ

32.62% margin

Pre-tax income

$36.3B+1.21% QoQ

Net income

$29.8B+0.71% QoQ

27.23% margin

Cost of revenue

$54.6B−3.11% QoQ

Operating expenses

$19.1B+0.95% QoQ

R&D $11.7B

SG&A $7.3B

Tax

$6.5B+3.57% QoQ

Other income

$572M+1200.00% QoQ

Revenue$109B−1.59%

Gross profit

$54.8B−0.02%

50.06% margin

Operating income

$35.7B−0.53%

32.62% margin

Pre-tax income

$36.3B+1.21%

Net income

$29.8B+0.71%

27.23% margin

Cost of revenue

$54.6B−3.11%

Operating expenses

$19.1B+0.95%

R&D $11.7B

SG&A $7.3B

Other income$572M+1200.00%

Tax$6.5B+3.57%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 27 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.39· ±1.6% vs ±1.1% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±1.6%6 of 11×1.39

NFPjobs report±1.4%7 of 10×1.22

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.2%10 of 19×1.07

GDPgross domestic product±1.2%11 of 19×1.07

CPROFcorporate profits±1.2%9 of 12×1.06

FOMCrate decision±1.2%14 of 25×1.01

CPIconsumer prices±0.7%6 of 11×0.61

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.02 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Jul 30 '26 · confirmed	2.02	—
Q2 FY26	Apr 30 '26 · confirmed	2.01	—
Q1 FY26	Jan 29 '26 · confirmed	2.84	—
Q4 FY25	Oct 30 '25 · confirmed	1.85	—

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod