How often does Waste Management move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

WMNYSERefuse Systems

Waste Management Inc (WM) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

239.01

+4.34 · +1.85%

Regular session15:16 ET

Open234.80Volume1.8MMkt cap$93.3BP/E34.49EPS6.93Div yield1.56%

Day234.80 – 239.01100%52-wk194.22 – 246.0686%

Waste Management Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 27

after close · in 84 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−4.52%

vs ±4.7% implied · ×0.95

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 27 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+0.39%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

2,376 managers

Top fund weight

1.43%

WM weight · XLI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

11 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Waste Management (WM) is expected to report on Jan 27 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±4.5%
avg realized: ±3.1%

Jan 29 '25Jan 29 '25confirmed±3.9%▲+6.15%×1.56

Apr 28 '25Apr 28 '25confirmed±4.4%▼−0.12%×0.03

Jul 28 '25Jul 28 '25confirmed±4.1%▲+3.36%×0.81

Q3 FY25Oct 27 '25confirmed±4.7%▼−4.46%×0.95

Q4 FY25Jan 28 '26confirmed±4.1%▼−3.66%×0.90

Q1 FY26Apr 28 '26confirmed±4.6%▲+1.30%×0.29

Jul 28 '26Jul 28 '26confirmed±5.1%▼−1.17%×0.23

Q3 FY26Oct 27 '26confirmed±4.7%▼−4.52%×0.95

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q3 FY26±4.7%▼−4.52%×0.95

Jul '26±5.1%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 5 expiries · Oct 27 close

0.45OI · 5 expiries · Oct 27 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

3,211+2%

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

11.98%as filednet margin · revenue +6.25% YoY

Revenue

$6.8B

Gross profit

$2.8B

40.21% margin

Operating income

$1.3B

18.68% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.0B

Net income

$820M

11.98% margin

Cost of revenue

$4.1B

Operating expenses

$1.5B

Depreciation $792M

SG&A $655M

Other operating $27M

Other expense

$235M

Tax

$224M

Revenue$6.8B

Gross profit

$2.8B

40.21% margin

Operating income

$1.3B

18.68% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.0B

Net income

$820M

11.98% margin

Cost of revenue

$4.1B

Operating expenses

$1.5B

Depreciation $792M

SG&A $655M

Other operating $27M

Other expense

$235M

Tax$224M

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 15:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.78· ±1.5% vs ±0.8% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±1.5%3 of 11×1.78

GDPgross domestic product±1.3%10 of 20×1.55

NFPjobs report±1.3%6 of 10×1.50

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.2%11 of 20×1.37

FOMCrate decision±1.1%8 of 24×1.36

CPIconsumer prices±1.0%5 of 11×1.24

CPROFcorporate profits±0.6%5 of 12×0.73

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±0.8% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±0.8% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.05 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 27 '26 · confirmed	2.05	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 28 '26 · confirmed	1.79	—
Q4 FY25	Jan 28 '26 · confirmed	1.83	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 27 '25 · confirmed	1.49	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod