How often does Visa move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

VNYSEServices-Business Services, NEC

Visa Inc. (V) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

413.63

+3.09 · +0.75%

post 413.65 +0.01%

Closed19:52 ET

Open413.40Volume7.0MMkt cap$738.0BP/E35.11EPS11.78Div yield0.65%

Day413.17 – 416.7713%52-wk292.74 – 417.0097%

Visa Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 28

after close · in 89 days

est.Q1 FY27

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−0.31%

vs ±2.7% implied · ×0.12

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 27 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

10hTCBK · customerTriCo stockholders approve merger with First Hawaiian
1dJKHY · supplierJack Henry posts Q1 deconversion revenue of $17.9 million, sets FY27 estimate at $30.0 million
1dTBBK · customerBancorp reports 3Q 2026 net income $62.8 million, EPS $1.53, ROA 2.51%, ROE 36.0%

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+31.44%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

4,605 managers

Top fund weight

7.50%

V weight · XLF

N-PORTJun 30 '26

13 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Visa (V) is expected to report on Jan 28 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±2.8%
avg realized: ±1.9%

Jan 30 '25Jan 30 '25confirmed±2.6%▼−0.36%×0.14

Apr 29 '25Apr 29 '25confirmed±3.2%▲+1.17%×0.37

Jul 29 '25Jul 29 '25confirmed±2.7%▼−0.11%×0.04

Oct 28 '25Oct 28 '25confirmed±3.1%▼−1.62%×0.53

Jan 29 '26Jan 29 '26confirmed±2.4%▼−3.00%×1.23

Q2 FY26Apr 28 '26confirmed±3.0%▲+8.26%×2.74

Q3 FY26Jul 28 '26confirmed±3.1%▲+0.58%×0.19

Oct 27 '26Oct 27 '26confirmed±2.7%▼−0.31%×0.12

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Oct '26±2.7%▼−0.31%×0.12

Q3 FY26±3.1%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 9 expiries · Oct 29 close

1.46OI · 9 expiries · Oct 29 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

6,020+5%Nov 66d1.683,576+9%1.68

3,440+11%Nov 1313d0.973,561+2%0.97

27,429+1%Nov 2020d1.0526,204+1%1.05

1,393+19%Nov 2727d0.961,450+25%0.96

667—Dec 434d2.94227—2.94

0—Dec 1141d—0——

27,900+1%Dec 1848d0.8333,787+1%0.83

65,062+1%Jan 1576d1.1954,530+1%1.19

report · Jan 28 · after close · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 66d6,020+5%3,576+9%1.68

Nov 1313d3,440+11%3,561+2%0.97

Nov 2020d27,429+1%26,204

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

48.38%as filednet margin · revenue +3.59% QoQ · +14.36% YoY

Revenue

$11.6B+3.59% QoQ

Gross profit

$9.2B−2.28% QoQ

78.87% margin

Operating income

$6.9B−4.94% QoQ

59.12% margin

Pre-tax income

$6.8B−4.75% QoQ

Net income

$5.6B−6.53% QoQ

48.38% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.5B+33.51% QoQ

Operating expenses

$2.3B+6.64% QoQ

SG&A $1.0B

Marketing $649M

Depreciation $367M

Other operating $253M

Other expense

$44M

Tax

$1.2B+4.51% QoQ

Revenue$11.6B+3.59%

Gross profit

$9.2B−2.28%

78.87% margin

Operating income

$6.9B−4.94%

59.12% margin

Pre-tax income

$6.8B−4.75%

Net income

$5.6B−6.53%

48.38% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.5B+33.51%

Operating expenses

$2.3B+6.64%

SG&A $1.0B

Marketing $649M

Depreciation $367M

Other expense

$44M

Tax$1.2B+4.51%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.69· ±1.5% vs ±0.9% · 25 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±1.5%11 of 25×1.69

CPIconsumer prices±1.5%3 of 11×1.64

PPIproducer prices±1.4%5 of 11×1.56

NFPjobs report±1.1%4 of 10×1.19

PCEpersonal income & outlays±0.9%10 of 19×1.03

GDPgross domestic product±0.8%10 of 19×0.92

CPROFcorporate profits±0.7%5 of 12×0.74

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±0.9% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±0.9% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.97 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Jul 28 '26 · confirmed	2.97	—
Q2 FY26	Apr 28 '26 · confirmed	3.14	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod