How often does Universal Insurance move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

UVENYSEFire, Marine & Casualty Insurance

Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. (UVE) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

49.09

Closed16:00 ET

Open48.86Volume230,810Mkt cap$1.3BP/E5.84EPS8.40Div yield1.31%

Day48.51 – 49.09100%52-wk27.98 – 50.7593%

UVE

Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 25

after close · in 112 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+0.91%

vs ±8.7% implied · ×0.10

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 22 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Supply chain

13F top-10 QoQ

−1.00%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

221 managers

Top fund weight

0.03%

UVE weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Universal Insurance (UVE) is expected to report on Feb 25 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±10.4%
avg realized: ±7.0%

Feb 25 '25Feb 25 '25confirmed±10.4%▲+9.26%×0.89

Apr 24 '25Apr 24 '25confirmed±11.9%▲+1.03%×0.09

Jul 24 '25Jul 24 '25confirmed±8.2%▼−7.43%×0.90

Oct 23 '25Oct 23 '25confirmed±8.6%▲+11.95%×1.39

Feb 24 '26Feb 24 '26confirmed±11.2%▲+2.48%×0.22

Q1 FY26Apr 23 '26confirmed±12.8%▲+12.22%×0.95

Q2 FY26Jul 23 '26confirmed±11.3%▲+10.43%×0.92

Q3 FY26Oct 22 '26confirmed±8.7%▲+0.91%×0.10

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q3 FY26±8.7%▲+0.91%×0.10

Q2 FY26±11.3%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 2 expiries · Oct 21 close

0.20OI · 2 expiries · Oct 21 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · nearest expiry

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

1330%Nov 2015d674+1%

610%Feb 19106d0.35173+1%0.35

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2015d1330%674+1%0.20

Feb 19106d610%173+1%0.35

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

12.01%as filednet margin · revenue +2.87% QoQ · +9.48% YoY

Revenue$437M+2.87%

Pre-tax income$70M−11.89%

Net income$53M12.01%−11.28%

Tax$18M−13.65%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×1.33· ±2.1% vs ±1.6% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±2.1%4 of 10×1.33

PPIproducer prices±2.1%5 of 10×1.31

NFPjobs report±2.0%5 of 10×1.24

FOMCrate decision±1.6%12 of 24×1.00

CPROFcorporate profits±1.3%7 of 12×0.84

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.3%10 of 19×0.82

GDPgross domestic product±1.3%8 of 19×0.80

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.6% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.6% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.80 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 22 '26 · confirmed	1.80	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 23 '26 · confirmed	2.04	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 23 '26 · confirmed	1.88	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod