How often does Upwork move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

UPWKNasdaqServices-Computer Processing & Data Preparation

Upwork, Inc (UPWK) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

10.32

+0.39 · +3.94%

Regular session09:38 ET

Open9.86Volume7.0MMkt cap$1.2BP/E12.44EPS0.83

Day9.86 – 10.31100%52-wk7.44 – 22.8419%

UPWK

Upwork, Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 8

after close · in 96 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+2.16%

vs ±15.3% implied · ×0.14

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Nov 2 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

1hAAPL · customerHere are Wednesday's biggest analyst calls: SpaceX, AMD, Apple, Adobe, CoreWeave & more
14hGOOGL · customerGoogle responds to political backlash over removing search from schools that ban AI

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+7.19%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

299 managers

Top fund weight

0.03%

UPWK weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Upwork (UPWK) is expected to report on Feb 8 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±15.3%
avg realized: ±13.1%

Feb 12 '25Feb 12 '25confirmed±15.7%▲+6.60%×0.42

May 5 '25May 5 '25confirmed±12.7%▲+18.02%×1.42

Aug 6 '25Aug 6 '25confirmed±12.2%▲+13.64%×1.12

Q3 FY25Nov 3 '25confirmed±17.3%▲+13.24%×0.76

Feb 9 '26Feb 9 '26confirmed±15.7%▼−19.08%×1.22

Q1 FY26May 7 '26confirmed±16.4%▼−16.87%×1.03

Q2 FY26Aug 10 '26confirmed±17.1%▼−14.95%×0.87

Q3 FY26Nov 2 '26confirmed±15.3%▲+2.16%×0.14

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q3 FY26±15.3%▲+2.16%×0.14

Q2 FY26±17.1%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.19OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Apr 16 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

1,984+1%Nov 2016d1.781,115+3%1.78

1320%Dec 1844d0.40333+10%0.40

14,7820%Jan 1572d1.3910,6200%1.39

report · Feb 8 · after close · est.

2,8550%Apr 16163d2,3970%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d1,984+1%1,115+3%1.78

Dec 1844d1320%333+10%0.40

Jan 1572d14,7820%10,6200%1.39

report · Feb 8 · after close · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

17.14%as filednet margin · revenue −3.16% QoQ · −8.00% YoY

Revenue

$186M−3.16% QoQ

Gross profit

$141M−3.47% QoQ

76.13% margin

Operating income

$35M+22.94% QoQ

18.64% margin

Pre-tax income

$39M+20.06% QoQ

Net income

$32M+25.22% QoQ

17.14% margin

Cost of revenue

$44M−2.17% QoQ

Operating expenses

$107M−9.75% QoQ

SG&A $37M

R&D $35M

Marketing $34M

Other operating $1M

Tax

$7M+0.52% QoQ

Other income

$4M−0.38% QoQ

Revenue$186M−3.16%

Gross profit

$141M−3.47%

76.13% margin

Operating income

$35M+22.94%

18.64% margin

Pre-tax income

$39M+20.06%

Net income

$32M+25.22%

17.14% margin

Cost of revenue

$44M−2.17%

Operating expenses

$107M−9.75%

SG&A $37M

R&D $35M

Marketing $34M

Other income$4M−0.38%

Tax$7M+0.52%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 09:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.55· ±3.6% vs ±2.3% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±3.6%4 of 10×1.55

FOMCrate decision±3.2%9 of 24×1.37

CPROFcorporate profits±2.3%5 of 12×0.99

GDPgross domestic product±2.1%7 of 19×0.92

PPIproducer prices±2.0%5 of 10×0.87

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.0%7 of 19×0.86

CPIconsumer prices±1.9%6 of 10×0.79

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±2.3% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.3% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.25 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Nov 2 '26 · confirmed	0.25	—
Q2 FY26	Aug 10 '26 · confirmed	0.20	—
Q1 FY26	May 7 '26 · confirmed	0.24	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 3 '25 · confirmed	0.21	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod