How often does United Parcel Service move more than the options market prices?

5 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

UPSNYSETrucking & Courier Services (No Air)

United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

108.04

Closed19:59 ET

Open107.48Volume5.4MMkt cap$92.1BP/E20.08EPS5.38Div yield6.06%

Day107.46 – 108.8941%52-wk85.48 – 116.8672%

UPS

United Parcel Service Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 26

before open · in 86 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+5.75%

vs ±5.3% implied · ×1.09

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 27 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

10.60%

of UPS revenue · Amazon.com, Inc. and its affiliates

customerUPS 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+6.20%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

2,151 managers

Top fund weight

3.09%

UPS weight · SEA

N-PORTJun 30 '26

11 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

United Parcel Service (UPS) is expected to report on Jan 26 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

5 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±5.8%
avg realized: ±6.2%

Jan 30 '25Jan 30 '25confirmed±5.3%▼−14.11%×2.68

Apr 29 '25Apr 29 '25confirmed±6.4%▼−0.37%×0.06

Jul 29 '25Jul 29 '25confirmed±6.0%▼−10.57%×1.77

Q3 FY25Oct 28 '25confirmed±6.4%▲+8.00%×1.25

Jan 27 '26Jan 27 '26confirmed±5.5%▲+0.21%×0.04

Q1 FY26Apr 28 '26confirmed±5.7%▼−3.97%×0.69

Q2 FY26Jul 28 '26confirmed±5.6%▼−6.57%×1.18

Oct 27 '26Oct 27 '26confirmed±5.3%▲+5.75%×1.09

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Oct '26±5.3%▲+5.75%×1.09

Q2 FY26±5.6%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.00OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

3,512+98%Nov 65d0.477,517+245%0.47

1,769+40%Nov 1312d0.266,823+67%0.26

20,506+27%Nov 2019d0.4248,929−4%0.42

766+197%Nov 2726d0.362,133+197%0.36

6+200%Dec 433d0.05113+2725%0.05

2—Dec 1140d0.1414—0.14

25,777+1%Dec 1847d0.8929,071+2%0.89

57,8460%Jan 1575d0.7973,4460%0.79

report · Jan 26 · before open · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 65d3,512+98%7,517+245%0.47

Nov 1312d1,769+40%6,823+67%0.26

Nov 2019d20,506+27%48,929

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

2.65%as filednet margin · revenue +7.70% QoQ · +7.60% YoY

Revenue

$22.8B+7.70% QoQ

Gross profit

$4.7B−7.73% QoQ

20.75% margin

Operating income

$930M−26.60% QoQ

4.07% margin

Pre-tax income

$761M−32.30% QoQ

Net income

$604M−30.09% QoQ

2.65% margin

Cost of revenue

$18.1B+12.63% QoQ

Operating expenses

$3.8B−1.55% QoQ

SG&A $2.0B

Depreciation $980M

Other operating $789M

Other expense

$169M

Tax

$157M−39.62% QoQ

Revenue$22.8B+7.70%

Gross profit

$4.7B−7.73%

20.75% margin

Operating income

$930M−26.60%

4.07% margin

Pre-tax income

$761M−32.30%

Net income

$604M−30.09%

2.65% margin

Cost of revenue

$18.1B+12.63%

Operating expenses

$3.8B−1.55%

SG&A $2.0B

Depreciation $980M

Other operating $789M

Other expense

$169M

Tax$157M−39.62%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

GDP ×1.58· ±1.9% vs ±1.2% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

GDPgross domestic product±1.9%10 of 19×1.58

FOMCrate decision±1.6%8 of 24×1.31

PPIproducer prices±1.2%7 of 10×0.97

CPROFcorporate profits±1.1%7 of 12×0.91

CPIconsumer prices±1.1%5 of 10×0.89

NFPjobs report±1.1%6 of 9×0.85

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.0%12 of 19×0.85

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.2% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.2% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.71 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Jul 28 '26 · confirmed	0.71	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 28 '26 · confirmed	1.02	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 28 '25 · confirmed	1.55	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod