How often does United Fire move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

UFCSNasdaqFire, Marine & Casualty Insurance

United Fire Group Inc (UFCS) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

50.89

−5.76 · −10.18%

post 49.68 −2.37%

After hours16:00 ETdelayed

Open55.63Volume158,797Mkt cap$1.5BP/E9.00EPS5.52Div yield1.34%

Day49.68 – 55.630%52-wk29.47 – 58.2070%

UFCS

United Fire Group Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 10

in 98 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

Nov 3

after close

confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Supply chain

13F top-10 QoQ

+2.62%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

229 managers

Top fund weight

0.04%

UFCS weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

United Fire (UFCS) is expected to report on Feb 10 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±12.3%
avg realized: ±8.9%

Nov 5 '24Nov 5 '24confirmed±18.5%▲+24.13%×1.31

Feb 11 '25Feb 11 '25confirmed±9.5%▲+2.23%×0.23

May 6 '25May 6 '25confirmed±9.7%▼−4.58%×0.47

Aug 5 '25Aug 5 '25confirmed±16.7%▲+7.16%×0.43

Nov 4 '25Nov 4 '25confirmed±11.4%▲+14.69%×1.29

Feb 11 '26Feb 11 '26confirmed±12.3%▲+7.17%×0.58

Q1 FY26May 5 '26confirmed±10.5%▲+7.93%×0.75

Q2 FY26Aug 3 '26confirmed±10.1%▲+3.01%×0.30

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q2 FY26±10.1%▲+3.01%×0.30

Q1 FY26±10.5%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 2 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.00OI · 2 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · nearest expiry

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

0—Nov 2016d350%

0—Dec 1844d—0——

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d0—350%0.00

Dec 1844d0—0——

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

8.96%as filednet margin · revenue +1.94% QoQ · +10.49% YoY

Revenue

$392M+1.94% QoQ

Gross profit

$391M+2.08% QoQ

99.84% margin

Operating income

$48M+5.30% QoQ

12.25% margin

Pre-tax income

$45M+6.84% QoQ

Net income

$35M+5.16% QoQ

8.96% margin

Cost of revenue

$625,000−44.35% QoQ

Operating expenses

$343M+1.64% QoQ

Other operating $255M

Other operating $88M

Other expense

$3M

Tax

$10M+13.37% QoQ

Revenue$392M+1.94%

Gross profit

$391M+2.08%

99.84% margin

Operating income

$48M+5.30%

12.25% margin

Pre-tax income

$45M+6.84%

Net income

$35M+5.16%

8.96% margin

Cost of revenue

$625,000−44.35%

Operating expenses

$343M+1.64%

Other operating $255M

Other operating $88M

Other expense

$3M

Tax$10M+13.37%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.37· ±2.0% vs ±1.4% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±2.0%7 of 10×1.37

FOMCrate decision±1.5%10 of 24×1.06

PPIproducer prices±1.5%6 of 10×1.03

GDPgross domestic product±1.3%9 of 19×0.93

CPROFcorporate profits±1.3%5 of 12×0.92

CPIconsumer prices±1.2%2 of 10×0.85

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.0%8 of 19×0.70

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.34 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	—	1.34	—
Q2 FY26	Aug 3 '26 · confirmed	1.29	—
Q1 FY26	May 5 '26 · confirmed	1.15	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod