How often does United Airlines move more than the options market prices?

0 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

UALNasdaqAir Transportation, Scheduled

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

104.19

−1.02 · −0.97%

post 104.03 −0.15%

Closed19:12 ET

Open103.80Volume5.0MMkt cap$33.9BP/E9.44EPS11.02

Day101.56 – 104.1994%52-wk84.64 – 138.7736%

UAL

United Airlines Holdings, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 19

after close · in 78 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+3.99%

vs ±5.0% implied · ×0.79

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 20 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

13hJPM · customerFor JPMorgan, Amazon, fighting AI bots like Meta Muse may not be a winning long-term strategy
2dRJET · supplierRepublic Airways reports Q3 net income $34.6 million; revenues $553.5 million
2dSKYW · supplierSkywest three-month net income $119,523 thousand, EPS $3.08; nine-month net $321,915 thousand, EPS $8.11

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+8.07%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26125d lag

1,076 managers

Top fund weight

0.77%

UAL weight · XLI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

10 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

United Airlines (UAL) is expected to report on Jan 19 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

0 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±6.2%
avg realized: ±3.2%

Jan 21 '25Jan 21 '25confirmed±9.1%▲+2.92%×0.32

Apr 15 '25Apr 15 '25confirmed±7.3%▼−0.01%×0.00

Jul 16 '25Jul 16 '25confirmed±6.1%▲+3.11%×0.51

Oct 15 '25Oct 15 '25confirmed±5.6%▼−5.63%×1.00

Jan 20 '26Jan 20 '26confirmed±5.3%▲+2.20%×0.42

Q1 FY26Apr 21 '26confirmed±5.9%▼−5.58%×0.94

Q2 FY26Jul 15 '26confirmed±5.1%▼−1.79%×0.35

Q3 FY26Oct 20 '26confirmed±5.0%▲+3.99%×0.79

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q3 FY26±5.0%▲+3.99%×0.79

Q2 FY26±5.1%▼−1.79%×0.35

Q1 FY26±5.9%▼−5.58%×0.94

Jan '26±5.3%▲+2.20%×0.42

Oct '25±5.6%▼−5.63%×1.00

Jul '25±6.1%▲+3.11%×0.51

2 older reports

Apr '25±7.3%▼−0.01%×0.00

Jan '25±9.1%▲+2.92%×0.32

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 7 expiries · Oct 23 close

1.53OI · 7 expiries · Oct 23 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

4 nearer expiries

1,252+32%Nov 64d0.373,392+189%0.37

1,833+62%Nov 1311d0.782,351+95%0.78

21,892+30%Nov 2018d0.6832,313+21%0.68

590+372%Nov 2725d0.391,529+142%0.39

47,498+1%Dec 1846d0.37128,368+507%0.37

43,046+1%Jan 1574d1.3931,053+1%1.39

report · Jan 19 · after close · est.

12,266+1%Mar 19137d8,028+7%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

4 nearer expiries

Nov 64d1,252+32%3,392+189%0.37

Nov 1311d1,833+62%2,351+95%0.78

Nov 2018d21,892+30%32,313+21%0.68

Nov 2725d590+372%1,529+142%0.39

Dec 1846d47,498+1%128,368+507%0.37

Jan 1574d43,046+1%31,053+1%1.39

report · Jan 19 · after close · est.

Mar 19137d12,266+1%8,028+7%1.53

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

5.76%as filednet margin · revenue +1.15% QoQ · +17.41% YoY

Revenue

$17.9B+1.15% QoQ

Gross profit

$6.4B+5.05% QoQ

35.94% margin

Operating income

$1.4B+31.93% QoQ

8.09% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.3B+27.78% QoQ

Net income

$1.0B+27.83% QoQ

5.76% margin

Cost of revenue

$11.5B−0.92% QoQ

Operating expenses

$5.0B−0.80% QoQ

SG&A $3.4B

Other operating $1.0B

Depreciation $777M

Other expense

$135M

Tax

$282M+27.60% QoQ

Revenue$17.9B+1.15%

Gross profit

$6.4B+5.05%

35.94% margin

Operating income

$1.4B+31.93%

8.09% margin

Pre-tax income

$1.3B+27.78%

Net income

$1.0B+27.83%

5.76% margin

Cost of revenue

$11.5B−0.92%

Operating expenses

$5.0B−0.80%

SG&A $3.4B

Other operating $1.0B

Depreciation $777M

Other expense

$135M

Tax$282M+27.60%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.26· ±2.8% vs ±2.2% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±2.8%4 of 10×1.26

CPROFcorporate profits±2.0%6 of 12×0.90

GDPgross domestic product±2.0%10 of 19×0.89

FOMCrate decision±1.8%12 of 24×0.82

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.8%10 of 19×0.80

NFPjobs report±1.7%6 of 10×0.78

CPIconsumer prices±1.7%2 of 10×0.75

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±2.2% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.2% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 3.14 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 20 '26 · confirmed	3.14	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 15 '26 · confirmed	2.46	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 21 '26 · confirmed	2.14	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod