How often does Tvardi Therapeutics move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 4 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

TVRDNasdaqPharmaceutical Preparations

Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. (TVRD) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

0.80

−0.01 · −0.65%

post 0.81 +1.15%

Closed15:59 ET

Open0.85Volume93,111Mkt cap$11.1M

Day0.81 – 0.850%52-wk0.77 – 5.691%

TVRD

Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 12

after close · in 8 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+7.34%

vs ±67.0% implied · ×0.11

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 14 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

13F top-10 QoQ

−14.40%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

56 managers

Top fund weight

0.00%

TVRD weight · VTI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

2 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Tvardi Therapeutics (TVRD) is expected to report on Nov 12 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 4≥ implied

avg implied: ±41.1%
avg realized: ±3.9%

Mar 4 '24Mar 4 '24confirmed—▼−8.98%—

May 13 '24May 13 '24confirmed—▼−3.56%—

May 13 '25May 13 '25confirmed±0.4%▼−0.72%×1.70

Aug 14 '25Aug 14 '25confirmed—▲+0.88%—

Q3 FY25Nov 13 '25confirmed±28.3%▼−1.95%×0.07

Q1 FY26Mar 31 '26confirmed±68.8%▼−5.66%×0.08

May 8 '26May 8 '26confirmed—▼−0.71%—

Q2 FY26Aug 14 '26confirmed±67.0%▲+7.34%×0.11

quarterimplied−70%0+70%realized×

Q2 FY26±67.0%▲+7.34%×0.11

May '26—▼−0.71%—

Q1 FY26±68.8%▼−5.66%×0.08

Q3 FY25±28.3%▼−1.95%×0.07

Aug '25—▲+0.88%—

May '25±0.4%▼−0.72%×1.70

2 older reports

May '24—▼−3.56%—

Mar '24—▼−8.98%—

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 16 close

0.02OI · 3 expiries · Oct 16 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

20%Nov 2016d1070%

640%Dec 1844d0.213060%0.21

430%Mar 19135d0.041,165−1%0.04

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d20%1070%0.02

Dec 1844d640%3060%0.21

Mar 19135d430%1,165−1%0.04

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

per later filingQ1 FY24

−1437.75%per later filingnet margin · revenue −28.93% QoQ

Revenue$2M−28.93%

Gross profit$2M70.96%−36.77%

Operating income−$30M−1389.51%+9.02%

Pre-tax income−$31M−0.28%

Net income−$31M−1437.75%+5.07%

Cost of revenue$620,000+1.97%

Operating expenses$31M−10.92%

Other expense−$1M−151.58%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Mar 31 '24 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 15:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×0.90· ±4.1% vs ±4.6% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±4.1%12 of 24×0.90

NFPjobs report±3.2%4 of 10×0.70

GDPgross domestic product±2.9%9 of 19×0.63

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.9%8 of 19×0.63

CPROFcorporate profits±2.6%4 of 12×0.57

PPIproducer prices±2.2%4 of 10×0.47

CPIconsumer prices±1.8%3 of 10×0.39

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±4.6% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±4.6% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.69 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 14 '26 · confirmed	-0.69	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 31 '26 · confirmed	-0.73	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 13 '25 · confirmed	-0.59	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod