How often does Smurfit Westrock move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

SWNYSEPaperboard Containers & Boxes

Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

43.43

pre 44.00 +1.34%

Pre-market05:15 ETdelayed

Open44.00Volume6.6MMkt cap$22.8BP/E46.81EPS0.94Div yield4.11%

Day44.00 – 44.0050%52-wk31.79 – 51.5262%

Smurfit Westrock plc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 10

before open · in 98 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−5.20%

vs ±8.7% implied · ×0.60

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 28 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

filed ties

13F top-10 QoQ

+4.44%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

638 managers

Top fund weight

3.25%

SW weight · XLB

N-PORTJun 30 '26

9 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Smurfit Westrock (SW) is expected to report on Feb 10 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±8.3%
avg realized: ±5.8%

Feb 12 '25Feb 12 '25confirmed±6.7%▼−5.05%×0.76

May 1 '25May 1 '25confirmed±8.8%▼−3.69%×0.42

Jul 30 '25Jul 30 '25confirmed±7.3%▼−1.74%×0.24

Oct 29 '25Oct 29 '25confirmed±8.3%▼−12.18%×1.46

Feb 11 '26Feb 11 '26confirmed±7.6%▲+9.90%×1.31

Q1 FY26Apr 30 '26confirmed±9.2%▼−3.25%×0.35

Q2 FY26Jul 29 '26confirmed±9.6%▼−5.00%×0.52

Oct 28 '26Oct 28 '26confirmed±8.7%▼−5.20%×0.60

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Oct '26±8.7%▼−5.20%×0.60

Q2 FY26±9.6%▼−5.00%×0.52

Q1 FY26±9.2%▼−3.25%×0.35

Feb '26±7.6%▲+9.90%×1.31

Oct '25±8.3%▼−12.18%×1.46

Jul '25±7.3%▼−1.74%×0.24

2 older reports

May '25±8.8%▼−3.69%×0.42

Feb '25±6.7%▼−5.05%×0.76

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.12OI · 4 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Apr 16 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

1,257+2%Nov 2016d1.041,213+4%1.04

76+13%Dec 1844d0.26290+1%0.26

1,1400%Jan 1572d0.166,942−1%0.16

report · Feb 10 · before open · est.

72−1%Apr 16163d6170%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d1,257+2%1,213+4%1.04

Dec 1844d76+13%290+1%0.26

Jan 1572d1,1400%6,942−1%0.16

report · Feb 10 · before open · est.

Apr 16163d72−1%6170%0.12

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

1.10%as filednet margin · revenue +4.14% QoQ · +1.15% YoY

Revenue

$8.0B+4.14% QoQ

Packaging $6.4B

Paper $1.6B

Gross profit

$1.4B+10.33% QoQ

17.42% margin

Operating income

$309M+22.13% QoQ

3.85% margin

Pre-tax income

$128M+52.38% QoQ

Net income

$88M+39.68% QoQ

1.10% margin

Cost of revenue

$6.6B+2.92% QoQ

Operating expenses

$1.1B+7.39% QoQ

SG&A $970M

Other operating $1M

Other operating $119M

Other expense

$181M

Tax

$40M+90.48% QoQ

Revenue$8.0B+4.14%

Packaging $6.4B · Paper $1.6B

Gross profit

$1.4B+10.33%

17.42% margin

Operating income

$309M+22.13%

3.85% margin

Pre-tax income

$128M+52.38%

Net income

$88M+39.68%

1.10% margin

Cost of revenue

$6.6B+2.92%

Operating expenses

$1.1B+7.39%

SG&A $970M

Other operating $1M

Other operating $119M

Other expense

$181M

Tax$40M+90.48%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

No trades yet today.

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.51· ±2.8% vs ±1.9% · 18 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±2.8%6 of 18×1.51

NFPjobs report±2.4%5 of 10×1.29

PPIproducer prices±1.9%6 of 10×1.04

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.4%7 of 19×0.78

CPIconsumer prices±1.4%3 of 10×0.77

GDPgross domestic product±1.3%9 of 19×0.68

CPROFcorporate profits±0.9%8 of 12×0.49

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.9% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.9% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.17 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Jul 29 '26 · confirmed	0.17	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 30 '26 · confirmed	0.12	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod