How often does Septerna move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 7 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

SEPNNasdaqPharmaceutical Preparations

Septerna, Inc. (SEPN) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

47.28

pre 47.21 +8.03%

Pre-market16:35 ETdelayed

Open45.90Volume307,511Mkt cap$2.0BEPS-0.53

Day45.90 – 47.7073%52-wk17.55 – 51.1088%

SEPN

Septerna, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 9

before open · in 4 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+22.93%

vs ±11.9% implied · ×1.93

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 10 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

100.00%

of SEPN revenue · Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated ("Vertex")

customerSEPN 10-K

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+0.67%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

156 managers

Top fund weight

0.02%

SEPN weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Septerna (SEPN) is expected to report on Nov 9 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 7≥ implied

avg implied: ±13.9%
avg realized: ±6.0%

Nov 20 '24Nov 20 '24confirmed—▼−3.16%—

Mar 27 '25Mar 27 '25confirmed±18.8%▲+2.44%×0.13

May 15 '25May 15 '25confirmed±6.6%▼−2.77%×0.42

Aug 11 '25Aug 11 '25confirmed±16.1%▼−2.52%×0.16

Q3 FY25Nov 10 '25confirmed±25.7%▼−2.22%×0.09

Q1 FY26Mar 9 '26confirmed±8.3%▼−3.58%×0.43

May 11 '26May 11 '26confirmed±9.9%▲+5.39%×0.54

Q2 FY26Aug 10 '26confirmed±11.9%▲+22.93%×1.93

quarterimplied−30%0+30%realized×

Q2 FY26±11.9%▲+22.93%×1.93

May '26±9.9%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 28 close

0.19OI · 4 expiries · Oct 28 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

90%

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−48.73%as filednet margin · revenue +0.84% QoQ · +22375.63% YoY

Revenue$27M+0.84%

Gross profit$27M100.00%+0.84%

Operating income−$17M−62.95%−26.59%

Pre-tax income−$12M−45.31%

Net income−$13M−48.73%−50.91%

Cost of revenue$0—

Operating expenses$44M+9.44%

Tax$973,000+188.72%

Other income$5M−4.50%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×1.12· ±4.0% vs ±3.6% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±4.0%7 of 10×1.12

PPIproducer prices±3.5%3 of 10×0.98

PCEpersonal income & outlays±3.3%9 of 19×0.91

GDPgross domestic product±2.8%11 of 19×0.79

FOMCrate decision±2.7%6 of 16×0.75

CPROFcorporate profits±2.2%6 of 12×0.62

NFPjobs report±1.7%1 of 10×0.47

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±3.6% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±3.6% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.29 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 10 '26 · confirmed	-0.29	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 9 '26 · confirmed	-0.19	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 10 '25 · confirmed	0.18	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod