How often does RXO move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

RXONYSETransportation Services

RXO, Inc. (RXO) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

28.28

+0.46 · +1.64%

post 28.27 −0.02%

After hours16:19 ETdelayed

Open28.02Volume2.0MMkt cap$4.6BEPS-0.52

Day27.82 – 28.3486%52-wk10.43 – 29.9092%

RXO

RXO, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 5

before open · in 94 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+0.18%

vs ±8.5% implied · ×0.02

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 29 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

7dUPS · supplierUPS beats quarterly expectations, raises full-year guidance again

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−0.89%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26126d lag

305 managers

Top fund weight

0.14%

RXO weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

RXO (RXO) is expected to report on Feb 5 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±9.8%
avg realized: ±8.9%

Feb 5 '25Feb 5 '25confirmed±6.2%▼−14.92%×2.40

May 7 '25May 7 '25confirmed±10.6%▼−5.60%×0.53

Aug 7 '25Aug 7 '25confirmed±8.4%▼−4.27%×0.51

Q3 FY25Nov 6 '25confirmed±8.6%▼−23.10%×2.69

Feb 6 '26Feb 6 '26confirmed±12.0%▲+1.93%×0.16

Q1 FY26May 7 '26confirmed±11.1%▲+17.79%×1.60

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±13.2%▼−3.62%×0.27

Q3 FY26Oct 29 '26confirmed±8.5%▲+0.18%×0.02

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q3 FY26±8.5%▲+0.18%×0.02

Q2 FY26±13.2%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Nov 2 close

0.62OI · 4 expiries · Nov 2 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

2450%Nov 2017d0.922650%0.92

1250%Dec 1845d0.82152+1%0.82

2,1780%Jan 1573d3.825700%3.82

report · Feb 5 · before open · est.

630%Feb 19108d1020%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2017d2450%2650%0.92

Dec 1845d1250%152+1%0.82

Jan 1573d2,1780%5700%3.82

report · Feb 5 · before open · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

0.16%as filednet margin · revenue +5.47% QoQ · +31.67% YoY

Revenue

$1.9B+5.47% QoQ

Gross profit

$333M+10.26% QoQ

17.80% margin

Operating income

$17M+1600.00% QoQ

0.91% margin

Pre-tax income

$6M+175.00% QoQ

Net income

$3M+133.33% QoQ

0.16% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.5B+4.48% QoQ

Operating expenses

$316M+4.98% QoQ

SG&A $223M

Other operating $58M

Depreciation $28M

Other operating $7M

Other expense

$11M

Tax

$3M+200.00% QoQ

Revenue$1.9B+5.47%

Gross profit

$333M+10.26%

17.80% margin

Operating income

$17M+1600.00%

0.91% margin

Pre-tax income

$6M+175.00%

Net income

$3M+133.33%

0.16% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.5B+4.48%

Operating expenses

$316M+4.98%

SG&A $223M

Other operating $58M

Depreciation $28M

Other expense

$11M

Tax$3M+200.00%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.90· ±4.9% vs ±2.6% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±4.9%4 of 10×1.90

FOMCrate decision±3.1%10 of 24×1.21

CPIconsumer prices±2.6%7 of 11×1.01

GDPgross domestic product±2.5%14 of 20×0.97

CPROFcorporate profits±2.3%8 of 12×0.92

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.1%13 of 20×0.82

PPIproducer prices±1.9%6 of 11×0.75

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±2.6% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.6% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.02 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 29 '26 · confirmed	0.02	—
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	-0.05	—
Q1 FY26	May 7 '26 · confirmed	-0.21	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 6 '25 · confirmed	-0.08	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod