How often does Republic Services move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 7 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

RSGNYSERefuse Systems

Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

245.42

+2.55 · +1.05%

post 247.00 +0.64%

After hours17:58 ETdelayed

Open243.11Volume1.5MMkt cap$74.0BP/E34.16EPS7.23Div yield1.05%

Day241.63 – 247.00100%52-wk195.20 – 249.3796%

RSG

Republic Services, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 16

after close · in 104 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+3.28%

vs ±4.1% implied · ×0.79

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 29 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

13F top-10 QoQ

+7.73%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

1,310 managers

Top fund weight

0.74%

RSG weight · XLI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

10 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Republic Services (RSG) is expected to report on Feb 16 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 7≥ implied

avg implied: ±3.9%
avg realized: ±2.4%

Feb 13 '25Feb 13 '25confirmed±3.2%▲+3.06%×0.95

Apr 24 '25Apr 24 '25confirmed±4.5%▲+1.16%×0.26

Jul 29 '25Jul 29 '25confirmed±3.6%▼−5.82%×1.60

Q3 FY25Oct 30 '25confirmed±5.2%▼−0.80%×0.15

Feb 17 '26Feb 17 '26confirmed±3.2%▼−1.97%×0.62

Q1 FY26May 7 '26confirmed±3.6%▼−0.76%×0.21

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed—▲+2.37%—

Q3 FY26Oct 29 '26confirmed±4.1%▲+3.28%×0.79

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q3 FY26±4.1%▲+3.28%×0.79

Q2 FY26—▲+2.37%—

Q1 FY26±3.6%▼−0.76%×0.21

Feb '26±3.2%▼−1.97%×0.62

Q3 FY25±5.2%▼−0.80%×0.15

Jul '25±3.6%▼−5.82%×1.60

2 older reports

Apr '25±4.5%▲+1.16%×0.26

Feb '25±3.2%▲+3.06%×0.95

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.64OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Apr 16 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

1,018+3%Nov 2016d0.502,048+35%0.50

355+3%Dec 1844d0.73485+1%0.73

469−4%Jan 1572d0.461,0100%0.46

report · Feb 16 · after close · est.

376+4%Apr 16163d590+3%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d1,018+3%2,048+35%0.50

Dec 1844d355+3%485+1%0.73

Jan 1572d469−4%1,0100%0.46

report · Feb 16 · after close · est.

Apr 16163d376+4%590+3%0.64

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

13.01%as filednet margin · revenue +2.91% QoQ · +8.24% YoY

Revenue

$4.6B+2.91% QoQ

Gross profit

$1.9B+1.55% QoQ

41.59% margin

Operating income

$921M+2.22% QoQ

20.20% margin

Pre-tax income

$719M+2.86% QoQ

Net income

$593M+4.77% QoQ

13.01% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.7B+3.90% QoQ

Operating expenses

$975M+0.93% QoQ

Depreciation $494M

SG&A $447M

Other operating $30M

Other expense

$202M

Tax

$126M−5.26% QoQ

Revenue$4.6B+2.91%

Gross profit

$1.9B+1.55%

41.59% margin

Operating income

$921M+2.22%

20.20% margin

Pre-tax income

$719M+2.86%

Net income

$593M+4.77%

13.01% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.7B+3.90%

Operating expenses

$975M+0.93%

Depreciation $494M

SG&A $447M

Other operating $30M

Other expense

$202M

Tax$126M−5.26%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 17:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.43· ±1.1% vs ±0.8% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±1.1%11 of 24×1.43

GDPgross domestic product±1.1%10 of 19×1.41

NFPjobs report±1.1%6 of 10×1.33

PPIproducer prices±1.0%5 of 10×1.23

CPIconsumer prices±1.0%5 of 10×1.19

PCEpersonal income & outlays±0.9%9 of 19×1.07

CPROFcorporate profits±0.5%7 of 12×0.60

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±0.8% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±0.8% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.93 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 29 '26 · confirmed	1.93	—
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	1.84	—
Q1 FY26	May 7 '26 · confirmed	1.70	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 30 '25 · confirmed	1.76	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod