How often does Redwire move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

RDWNYSEGuided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts

Redwire Corp (RDW) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

6.78

+0.59 · +9.53%

Regular session11:57 ET

Open6.47Volume26.2MMkt cap$1.5BEPS-1.17

Day6.38 – 6.78100%52-wk4.87 – 26.649%

RDW

Redwire Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Next report

Feb 24

after close · in 110 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−19.82%

vs ±9.6% implied · ×2.06

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Nov 4 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

13F top-10 QoQ

+71.64%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26129d lag

328 managers

Top fund weight

0.55%

RDW weight · NASA

N-PORTAug 31 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Redwire (RDW) is expected to report on Feb 24 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±11.6%
avg realized: ±13.1%

Mar 11 '25Mar 11 '25confirmed±12.9%▼−3.59%×0.28

May 12 '25May 12 '25confirmed±11.4%▼−6.63%×0.58

Aug 6 '25Aug 6 '25confirmed±10.0%▼−30.88%×3.09

Q3 FY25Nov 5 '25confirmed±12.1%▼−18.08%×1.49

Q1 FY26Feb 25 '26confirmed±11.6%▲+10.79%×0.93

May 6 '26May 6 '26confirmed±10.5%▼−4.56%×0.43

Q2 FY26Aug 5 '26confirmed±14.5%▲+10.35%×0.72

Nov 4 '26Nov 4 '26confirmed±9.6%▼−19.82%×2.06

quarterimplied−35%0+35%realized×

Nov '26±9.6%▼−19.82%×2.06

Q2 FY26±14.5%▲+10.35%×0.72

May '26±10.5%▼−4.56%×0.43

Q1 FY26±11.6%▲+10.79%×0.93

Q3 FY25±12.1%▼−18.08%×1.49

Aug '25±10.0%▼−30.88%×3.09

2 older reports

May '25±11.4%▼−6.63%×0.58

Mar '25±12.9%▼−3.59%×0.28

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 8 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.45OI · 8 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Nov 6 · nearest expiry

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

4,526+8%Nov 60d9,970+56%

1,316+17%Nov 137d0.363,641+7%0.36

25,6020%Nov 2014d0.6539,565+1%0.65

1,033+88%Nov 2721d0.521,971+51%0.52

202—Dec 428d0.28720—0.28

3 later expiries

3,215+43%Dec 1842d1.392,312+38%1.39

12,803+3%Jan 1570d0.1490,605−2%0.14

6,456+5%Feb 19105d0.6110,525+2%0.61

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 60d4,526+8%9,970+56%0.45

Nov 137d1,316+17%3,641+7%0.36

Nov 2014d25,6020%39,565+1%0.65

Nov 2721d1,033+88%1,971+51%0.52

Dec 428d202—720—0.28

3 later expiries

Dec 1842d3,215+43%2,312+38%1.39

Jan 1570d12,803+3%90,605−2%0.14

Feb 19105d6,456+5%10,525+2%0.61

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

−21.26%as filednet margin · revenue −6.87% QoQ · +5.42% YoY

Revenue$109M−6.87%

Gross profit$35M32.30%+8.23%

Operating income−$26M−24.09%−18.92%

Pre-tax income−$24M+39.67%

Net income−$23M−21.26%+43.43%

Cost of revenue$74M−12.68%

Operating expenses$61M+12.55%

Tax−$417,000−122.40%

Other income$3M+115.71%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 11:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.75· ±8.0% vs ±4.6% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±8.0%5 of 10×1.75

CPROFcorporate profits±6.3%4 of 12×1.37

GDPgross domestic product±5.5%9 of 20×1.19

PPIproducer prices±5.1%4 of 11×1.12

PCEpersonal income & outlays±4.8%9 of 20×1.06

CPIconsumer prices±3.6%5 of 11×0.78

FOMCrate decision±3.6%13 of 24×0.78

Bar = avg |move| to ±8% · tick = ±4.6% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±4.6% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.09 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	—	-0.09	—
Q2 FY26	Aug 5 '26 · confirmed	-0.19	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 25 '26 · confirmed	-0.40	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 5 '25 · confirmed	-0.29	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod