What move does the options market price into Redwire's report?

Implied ±10.2%, either direction.

How often does Redwire move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

RDWNYSEGuided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts

Redwire Corp (RDW) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

8.13

pre 8.20 +0.99%

Pre-market06:40 ETdelayed

Open8.14Volume12.1MMkt cap$2.0BEPS-1.37

Day8.14 – 8.3332%52-wk4.87 – 26.6415%

RDW

Redwire Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±10.2%implied · straddle

8Q avg ±11.7%·×0.87·fair

7.298.95

spot 8.12exp Nov 6ATM strike 8ATM straddle 0.97IV 165%

Nov 3 close

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Today

after close

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+10.35%

vs ±14.5% implied · ×0.72

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 5 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

13F top-10 QoQ

+71.64%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

328 managers

Top fund weight

0.55%

RDW weight · NASA

N-PORTAug 31 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Redwire (RDW) is expected to report on Nov 4 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±12.6%
avg realized: ±11.7%

Mar 10 '25Mar 10 '25confirmed±18.1%▼−8.44%×0.47

Mar 11 '25Mar 11 '25confirmed±12.9%▼−3.59%×0.28

May 12 '25May 12 '25confirmed±11.4%▼−6.63%×0.58

Aug 6 '25Aug 6 '25confirmed±10.0%▼−30.88%×3.09

Q3 FY25Nov 5 '25confirmed±12.1%▼−18.08%×1.49

Q1 FY26Feb 25 '26confirmed±11.6%▲+10.79%×0.93

May 6 '26May 6 '26confirmed±10.5%▼−4.56%×0.43

Q2 FY26Aug 5 '26confirmed±14.5%▲+10.35%×0.72

quarterimplied−35%0+35%realized×

Q2 FY26±14.5%▲+10.35%×0.72

May '26±10.5%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 8 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.45OI · 8 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Nov 6 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

4,526+8%Nov 62d9,970+56%

1,316+17%Nov 139d0.363,641+7%0.36

25,6020%Nov 2016d0.6539,565+1%0.65

1,033+88%Nov 2723d0.521,971+51%0.52

202—Dec 430d0.28720—0.28

3 later expiries

3,215+43%Dec 1844d1.392,312+38%1.39

12,803+3%Jan 1572d0.14

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 62d4,526+8%9,970+56%0.45

Nov 139d1,316+17%3,641+7%0.36

Nov 2016d25,6020%39,565+1%0.65

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±10.2%

Funds 4

NASA±0.1%

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−35.00%as filednet margin · revenue +20.73% QoQ · +89.56% YoY

Revenue$117M+20.73%

Gross profit$33M27.80%+26.10%

Operating income−$22M−18.87%+68.31%

Pre-tax income−$39M+48.45%

Net income−$41M−35.00%+46.44%

Cost of revenue$85M+18.78%

Operating expenses$55M−42.80%

Tax$2M+190.48%

Other expense−$17M−176.28%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 06:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.77· ±8.0% vs ±4.5% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±8.0%5 of 10×1.77

CPROFcorporate profits±6.3%4 of 12×1.39

GDPgross domestic product±5.7%8 of 19×1.25

PPIproducer prices±5.3%3 of 10×1.17

PCEpersonal income & outlays±5.0%8 of 19×1.11

FOMCrate decision±3.6%13 of 24×0.80

CPIconsumer prices±3.3%5 of 10×0.74

Bar = avg |move| to ±8% · tick = ±4.5% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±4.5% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.19 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 5 '26 · confirmed	-0.19	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 25 '26 · confirmed	-0.40	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 5 '25 · confirmed	-0.29	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod