What move does the options market price into Prairie Operating's report?

Implied ±28.7%, either direction.

How often does Prairie Operating move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 5 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

PROPNasdaqCrude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Prairie Operating Co. (PROP) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

0.43

+0.03 · +6.58%

post 0.39 −9.81%

After hours15:59 ETdelayed

Open0.40Volume760,988Mkt cap$75.6MP/E21.86

Day0.39 – 0.4032%52-wk0.32 – 2.553%

PROP

Prairie Operating Co.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±28.7%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±13.2%·×2.18·rich

0.320.58

straddle ±37.8%

spot 0.45exp Nov 20ATM strike 0.5ATM straddle 0.20IV 246%

Nov 4 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 13

after close · in 9 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−29.00%

vs ±21.3% implied · ×1.36

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 17 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Supply chain

13F top-10 QoQ

+44.08%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

109 managers

Top fund weight

0.00%

PROP weight · VTI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

1 fund

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Prairie Operating (PROP) is expected to report on Nov 13 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

5 reports

2 of 5≥ implied

avg implied: ±27.6%
avg realized: ±13.2%

Aug 12 '25Aug 12 '25confirmed±26.2%▼−19.08%×0.73

Q3 FY25Nov 14 '25confirmed±41.4%▲+0.57%×0.01

Q1 FY26Mar 30 '26confirmed±36.7%▲+2.01%×0.05

May 14 '26May 14 '26confirmed±12.8%▼−15.34%×1.20

Q2 FY26Aug 17 '26confirmed±21.3%▼−29.00%×1.36

quarterimplied−45%0+45%realized×

Q2 FY26±21.3%▼−29.00%×1.36

May '26±12.8%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 29 close

0.14OI · 4 expiries · Oct 29 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

57+159%Nov 2016d395+11%

6270%Dec 1844d0.0417,1770%0.04

1,159−15%Jan 1572d0.0524,4500%0.05

1320%Mar 19135d0.14935+6%0.14

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d57+159%395+11%0.14

Dec 1844d6270%17,1770%0.04

Jan 1572d1,159−15%24,4500%0.05

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±37.8%

Funds 1

VTI±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

110.28%as filednet margin · revenue +18.51% QoQ · +45.17% YoY

Revenue

$99M+18.51% QoQ

Gross profit

$83M+25.31% QoQ

83.76% margin

Operating income

$45M+75.47% QoQ

45.88% margin

Pre-tax income

$129M+167.43% QoQ

Net income

$109M+171.41% QoQ

110.28% margin

Cost of revenue

$16M−7.40% QoQ

Operating expenses

$37M−6.92% QoQ

Depreciation $17M

SG&A $12M

Other operating $8M

Other operating $439,000

Tax

$20M+151.61% QoQ

Other income

$83M+138.48% QoQ

Revenue$99M+18.51%

Gross profit

$83M+25.31%

83.76% margin

Operating income

$45M+75.47%

45.88% margin

Pre-tax income

$129M+167.43%

Net income

$109M+171.41%

110.28% margin

Cost of revenue

$16M−7.40%

Operating expenses

$37M−6.92%

Depreciation $17M

SG&A $12M

Other operating $8M

Other income$83M+138.48%

Tax$20M+151.61%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 15:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPROF ×0.76· ±6.4% vs ±8.3% · 12 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPROFcorporate profits±6.4%4 of 12×0.76

FOMCrate decision±4.2%10 of 24×0.50

GDPgross domestic product±4.1%7 of 19×0.49

PPIproducer prices±3.6%2 of 10×0.43

PCEpersonal income & outlays±3.5%7 of 19×0.42

CPIconsumer prices±3.4%6 of 10×0.41

NFPjobs report±3.0%5 of 10×0.36

Bar = avg |move| to ±9% · tick = ±8.3% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±8.3% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.23 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 17 '26 · confirmed	0.23	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 30 '26 · confirmed	-2.16	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 14 '25 · confirmed	-0.44	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod