How often does PROG move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 7 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

PRGNYSEServices-Equipment Rental & Leasing, NEC

PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

39.00

+2.47 · +6.76%

Regular session10:07 ET

Open37.39Volume1.4MMkt cap$1.4BP/E10.29EPS3.79Div yield1.51%

Day37.08 – 39.0797%52-wk25.18 – 47.5762%

PRG

PROG Holdings, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 17

before open · in 105 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+4.29%

vs ±13.1% implied · ×0.33

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 28 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

13F top-10 QoQ

+6.47%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

292 managers

Top fund weight

0.06%

PRG weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

PROG (PRG) is expected to report on Feb 17 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 7≥ implied

avg implied: ±13.4%
avg realized: ±12.5%

Feb 19 '25Feb 19 '25confirmed±11.9%▼−28.37%×2.39

Apr 23 '25Apr 23 '25confirmed±18.6%▼−6.99%×0.38

Jul 23 '25Jul 23 '25confirmed±10.5%▲+16.64%×1.59

Oct 22 '25Oct 22 '25confirmed±17.1%▼−0.43%×0.03

Feb 18 '26Feb 18 '26confirmed±10.4%▲+6.64%×0.64

Q1 FY26Apr 29 '26confirmed±12.3%▲+24.10%×1.96

Q2 FY26Jul 29 '26confirmed—▼−5.10%—

Q3 FY26Oct 28 '26confirmed±13.1%▲+4.29%×0.33

quarterimplied−30%0+30%realized×

Q3 FY26±13.1%▲+4.29%×0.33

Q2 FY26—▼−5.10%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 27 close

2.39OI · 4 expiries · Oct 27 closeP/C open interest · Apr 16 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

17,3650%Nov 2016d99.23175+3%99.23

129−2%Dec 1844d0.66194−3%0.66

260%Jan 1572d0.22119+3%0.22

report · Feb 17 · before open · est.

860%Apr 16163d36+13%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d17,3650%175+3%99.23

Dec 1844d129−2%194−3%0.66

Jan 1572d260%119+3%0.22

report · Feb 17 · before open · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

5.13%as filednet margin · revenue +0.84% QoQ · +21.96% YoY

Revenue

$726M+0.84% QoQ

Gross profit

$619M+0.99% QoQ

85.35% margin

Operating income

$66M+0.53% QoQ

9.09% margin

Pre-tax income

$52M+2.96% QoQ

Net income

$37M+0.58% QoQ

5.13% margin

Cost of revenue

$106M−0.02% QoQ

Operating expenses

$553M+1.05% QoQ

Depreciation $377M

SG&A $135M

Other operating $44M

Other expense

$14M

Tax

$15M+10.45% QoQ

Revenue$726M+0.84%

Gross profit

$619M+0.99%

85.35% margin

Operating income

$66M+0.53%

9.09% margin

Pre-tax income

$52M+2.96%

Net income

$37M+0.58%

5.13% margin

Cost of revenue

$106M−0.02%

Operating expenses

$553M+1.05%

Depreciation $377M

SG&A $135M

Other operating $44M

Other expense

$14M

Tax$15M+10.45%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 10:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.75· ±3.3% vs ±1.9% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±3.3%11 of 24×1.75

PPIproducer prices±2.5%6 of 10×1.30

NFPjobs report±2.4%5 of 10×1.27

CPROFcorporate profits±1.4%4 of 12×0.72

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.2%7 of 19×0.65

GDPgross domestic product±1.1%8 of 19×0.60

CPIconsumer prices±0.9%3 of 10×0.49

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±1.9% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.9% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.91 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 28 '26 · confirmed	0.91	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 29 '26 · confirmed	0.91	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 29 '26 · confirmed	0.89	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod