Palantir Technologies Inc. · Brief

Next report

90 days

Feb 1 · after closeest.Q4 FY26

Earnings

Expected move

Inputs

±3.9%implied · report alone

168.61182.19

straddle ±19.7%

spot 175.40exp Feb 19ATM strike 175ATM straddle 40.60IV 54%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Implied vs realized

8 reportsHistory

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±10.4%
avg realized: ±14.8%

Nov 4 '24±11.4%▲+23.47%×2.07

Feb 3 '25±11.8%▲+23.99%×2.04

May 5 '25±12.2%▼−12.05%×0.98

Aug 4 '25±10.2%▲+7.85%×0.77

Q3 FY25±8.5%▼−7.94%×0.93

Feb 2 '26±9.4%▲+6.85%×0.73

Q1 FY26±8.2%▼−6.93%×0.85

Q2 FY26±11.1%▲+29.45%×2.64

quarterimplied−30%0+30%realized×

Q2 FY26±11.1%▲+29.45%×2.64

Q1 FY26±8.2%▼−6.93%×0.85

Feb '26±9.4%▲+6.85%×0.73

Q3 FY25±8.5%▼−7.94%×0.93

Aug '25±10.2%▲+7.85%×0.77

May '25±12.2%▼−12.05%×0.98

2 older reports

Feb '25±11.8%▲+23.99%×2.04

Nov '24±11.4%▲+23.47%×2.07

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Bull & bear

Feb 1 report · est.

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Linked exposure

PLTR report session

Customers 2

RCATRed Cat Holdings×0.69 VOYGVoyager Technologies×0.50

× = co-movement · max 501dSource: SEC filings · market data

Latest changes

30 daysAll changes

Oct 19impliedImplied move: ±10.8% into Nov 2 earnings (Oct 19 close).Source

Your note

privateThesis 0 · Decisions 0 · Observations 0

No thesis.