How often does Packaging Corp of America move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

PKGNYSEPaperboard Containers & Boxes

Packaging Corp of America (PKG) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

255.49

−3.15 · −1.22%

post 255.50 0.00%

Closed16:00 ET

Open258.64Volume866,818Mkt cap$23.0BP/E33.01EPS7.74Div yield2.13%

Day254.48 – 258.7024%52-wk186.77 – 260.1394%

PKG

Packaging Corp of America

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 26

after close · in 84 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+4.15%

vs ±6.1% implied · ×0.68

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 21 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

1dBCC · supplierBoise Cascade Q3 net income $36,390 thousand, diluted EPS $1.04

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+0.96%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

899 managers

Top fund weight

2.82%

PKG weight · XLB

N-PORTJun 30 '26

10 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Packaging Corp of America (PKG) is expected to report on Jan 26 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±6.1%
avg realized: ±3.4%

Jan 28 '25Jan 28 '25confirmed±4.5%▼−9.77%×2.17

Apr 22 '25Apr 22 '25confirmed±6.3%▼−0.93%×0.15

Jul 23 '25Jul 23 '25confirmed±5.4%▼−0.19%×0.04

Q3 FY25Oct 22 '25confirmed±6.1%▲+2.17%×0.36

Jan 27 '26Jan 27 '26confirmed±6.2%▼−2.69%×0.43

Q1 FY26Apr 22 '26confirmed±7.4%▲+4.77%×0.64

Q2 FY26Jul 22 '26confirmed±6.7%▲+2.50%×0.37

Oct 21 '26Oct 21 '26confirmed±6.1%▲+4.15%×0.68

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Oct '26±6.1%▲+4.15%×0.68

Q2 FY26±6.7%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 23 close

0.25OI · 4 expiries · Oct 23 closeP/C open interest · Apr 16 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

57+256%Nov 2017d0.18324+14%0.18

3—Dec 1845d0.03105+5150%0.03

182+2%Jan 1573d0.19942+2%0.19

report · Jan 26 · after close · est.

410%Apr 16164d1630%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2017d57+256%324+14%0.18

Dec 1845d3—105+5150%0.03

Jan 1573d182+2%942+2%0.19

report · Jan 26 · after close · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

7.72%as filednet margin · revenue +5.16% QoQ · +14.67% YoY

Revenue

$2.5B+5.16% QoQ

Gross profit

$513M+13.16% QoQ

20.58% margin

Operating income

$291M+15.88% QoQ

11.70% margin

Pre-tax income

$259M+17.83% QoQ

Net income

$192M+12.40% QoQ

7.72% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.0B+3.26% QoQ

Operating expenses

$221M+9.77% QoQ

SG&A $179M

Other operating $42M

Other expense

$32M

Tax

$67M+36.81% QoQ

Revenue$2.5B+5.16%

Gross profit

$513M+13.16%

20.58% margin

Operating income

$291M+15.88%

11.70% margin

Pre-tax income

$259M+17.83%

Net income

$192M+12.40%

7.72% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.0B+3.26%

Operating expenses

$221M+9.77%

SG&A $179M

Other operating $42M

Other expense

$32M

Tax$67M+36.81%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.62· ±1.8% vs ±1.1% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±1.8%10 of 24×1.62

PPIproducer prices±1.3%7 of 10×1.18

CPIconsumer prices±1.0%5 of 10×0.92

NFPjobs report±1.0%6 of 10×0.92

CPROFcorporate profits±0.9%7 of 12×0.80

PCEpersonal income & outlays±0.9%10 of 19×0.79

GDPgross domestic product±0.8%8 of 19×0.77

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.15 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Jul 22 '26 · confirmed	2.15	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 22 '26 · confirmed	1.91	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 22 '25 · confirmed	2.51	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod