How often does Polaris move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

PIINYSEMiscellaneous Transportation Equipment

Polaris Inc. (PII) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

60.63

+1.22 · +2.05%

post 62.42 +2.95%

Closed15:59 ET

Open60.62Volume930,381Mkt cap$3.4BEPS-3.65Div yield4.56%

Day60.62 – 62.8680%52-wk46.19 – 77.1652%

PII

Polaris Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 26

after close · in 85 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+5.28%

vs ±10.9% implied · ×0.48

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 27 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

3dLCII · supplierLCI Industries board rejects Monomoy $101-per-share bid as not superior
4dWFC · supplierWells Fargo to Present at the BancAnalysts Association of Boston Conference
6dHBAN · supplierHuntington posts Q3 net income $721 million, diluted EPS $0.33

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−5.79%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26126d lag

482 managers

Top fund weight

0.12%

PII weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

5 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Polaris (PII) is expected to report on Jan 26 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±11.0%
avg realized: ±7.4%

Apr 29 '25Apr 29 '25confirmed±14.4%▲+0.27%×0.02

Jul 29 '25Jul 29 '25confirmed±10.9%▲+16.84%×1.55

Oct 14 '25Oct 14 '25confirmed±5.4%▲+13.92%×2.56

Oct 28 '25Oct 28 '25confirmed±14.0%▼−5.31%×0.38

Jan 27 '26Jan 27 '26confirmed±10.4%▼−4.24%×0.41

Q1 FY26Apr 27 '26confirmed±11.7%▲+8.88%×0.76

Q2 FY26Jul 28 '26confirmed±10.5%▼−4.16%×0.40

Q3 FY26Oct 27 '26confirmed±10.9%▲+5.28%×0.48

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q3 FY26±10.9%▲+5.28%×0.48

Q2 FY26±10.5%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.19OI · 4 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6480%Nov 2018d0.80814−1%0.80

5240%Dec 1846d0.89586+5%0.89

2,9390%Jan 1574d0.823,594+1%0.82

report · Jan 26 · after close · est.

313+1%Mar 19137d2620%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2018d6480%814−1%0.80

Dec 1846d5240%586+5%0.89

Jan 1574d2,9390%3,594+1%0.82

report · Jan 26 · after close · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

1.89%as filednet margin · revenue +0.98% QoQ · +10.91% YoY

Revenue

$2.0B+0.98% QoQ

Gross profit

$432M−9.60% QoQ

21.17% margin

Operating income

$73M−50.67% QoQ

3.59% margin

Pre-tax income

$56M−57.87% QoQ

Net income

$39M−63.79% QoQ

1.89% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.6B+4.25% QoQ

Operating expenses

$359M+8.95% QoQ

SG&A $161M

Marketing $125M

R&D $88M

Other expense

$17M

Tax

$18M−34.33% QoQ

Revenue$2.0B+0.98%

Gross profit

$432M−9.60%

21.17% margin

Operating income

$73M−50.67%

3.59% margin

Pre-tax income

$56M−57.87%

Net income

$39M−63.79%

1.89% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.6B+4.25%

Operating expenses

$359M+8.95%

SG&A $161M

Marketing $125M

R&D $88M

Other expense

$17M

Tax$18M−34.33%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.37· ±2.8% vs ±2.1% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±2.8%4 of 10×1.37

FOMCrate decision±2.4%8 of 24×1.18

NFPjobs report±2.0%5 of 10×0.97

GDPgross domestic product±1.7%11 of 19×0.80

CPIconsumer prices±1.6%5 of 10×0.76

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.5%12 of 19×0.74

CPROFcorporate profits±1.2%8 of 12×0.60

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±2.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.66 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 27 '26 · confirmed	0.66	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 28 '26 · confirmed	1.82	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 27 '26 · confirmed	-0.83	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod