What move does the options market price into Pagaya Technologies's report?

Implied ±27.4%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Pagaya Technologies move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

PGYNasdaqFinance Services

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

18.14

−1.09 · −5.67%

post 18.21 +0.39%

After hours16:36 ETdelayed

Open19.20Volume2.4MMkt cap$1.6BP/E11.98EPS1.52

Day18.14 – 19.236%52-wk10.40 – 29.7540%

PGY

Pagaya Technologies Ltd.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±27.4%implied · straddle

13.7124.04

spot 18.87exp Feb 19ATM strike 19ATM straddle 6.07IV 76%

Nov 2 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 8

before open · in 98 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+1.66%

vs ±15.9% implied · ×0.10

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 29 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

13F top-10 QoQ

+17.94%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26125d lag

224 managers

Top fund weight

—

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Pagaya Technologies (PGY) is expected to report on Feb 8 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±16.4%
avg realized: ±10.1%

Feb 13 '25Feb 13 '25confirmed±16.6%▲+24.28%×1.47

May 7 '25May 7 '25confirmed±15.7%▼−2.09%×0.13

Aug 7 '25Aug 7 '25confirmed±15.1%▼−2.36%×0.16

Nov 10 '25Nov 10 '25confirmed±18.5%▲+12.80%×0.69

Feb 9 '26Feb 9 '26confirmed±17.8%▼−23.87%×1.34

Q1 FY26May 7 '26confirmed±15.5%▲+4.52%×0.29

Q2 FY26Jul 30 '26confirmed±16.4%▲+8.96%×0.55

Oct 29 '26Oct 29 '26confirmed±15.9%▲+1.66%×0.10

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Oct '26±15.9%▲+1.66%×0.10

Q2 FY26±16.4%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Oct 28 close

0.56OI · 4 expiries · Oct 28 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

15,184+1%Nov 2018d0.4137,3730%0.41

590+4%Dec 1846d1.72344+11%1.72

9,3860%Jan 1574d0.3626,0480%0.36

report · Feb 8 · before open · est.

2,117−1%Feb 19109d3,813−2%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2018d15,184+1%37,3730%0.41

Dec 1846d590+4%344+11%1.72

Jan 1574d9,3860%26,0480%0.36

report · Feb 8 · before open · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No linked exposure.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

10.94%as filednet margin · revenue +21.73% QoQ · +18.58% YoY

Revenue

$387M+21.73% QoQ

Gross profit

$168M+19.91% QoQ

43.49% margin

Operating income

$106M+32.24% QoQ

27.34% margin

Pre-tax income

$41M+51.03% QoQ

Net income

$42M+75.22% QoQ

10.94% margin

Cost of revenue

$219M+23.18% QoQ

Operating expenses

$63M+3.56% QoQ

SG&A $35M

R&D $17M

Marketing $10M

Other expense

$65M

Tax benefit

$1M

Revenue$387M+21.73%

Gross profit

$168M+19.91%

43.49% margin

Operating income

$106M+32.24%

27.34% margin

Pre-tax income

$41M+51.03%

Net income

$42M+75.22%

10.94% margin

Cost of revenue

$219M+23.18%

Operating expenses

$63M+3.56%

SG&A $35M

R&D $17M

Marketing $10M

Other expense

$65M

Tax benefit$1M

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 2 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.16· ±4.7% vs ±4.0% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±4.7%3 of 10×1.16

FOMCrate decision±4.0%12 of 24×1.00

NFPjobs report±3.6%4 of 10×0.88

GDPgross domestic product±3.5%12 of 19×0.87

PCEpersonal income & outlays±3.4%10 of 19×0.84

CPIconsumer prices±2.9%4 of 10×0.71

CPROFcorporate profits±2.3%7 of 12×0.57

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±4.0% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±4.0% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.52 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	—	0.52	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 30 '26 · confirmed	0.49	—
Q1 FY26	May 7 '26 · confirmed	0.28	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod