What move does the options market price into Progressive's report?

Implied ±10.8%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Progressive move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

PGRNYSEFire, Marine & Casualty Insurance

Progressive Corp (PGR) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

229.06

−4.12 · −1.77%

post 227.85 −0.53%

Closed16:45 ET

Open231.89Volume2.7MMkt cap$132.0BP/E11.45EPS19.90Div yield6.06%

Day226.41 – 233.0022%52-wk189.02 – 241.0275%

PGR

Progressive Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±10.8%implied · straddle

203.25252.29

spot 227.77exp Feb 19ATM strike 230ATM straddle 28.85IV 30%

Nov 6 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 27

after close · in 82 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−4.23%

vs ±3.2% implied · ×1.34

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 14 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

22.00%

of LendingTree revenue

supplierTREE 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.29%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26130d lag

1,831 managers

Top fund weight

1.95%

PGR weight · GLO

N-PORTJul 31 '26

13 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Progressive (PGR) is expected to report on Jan 27 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±3.3%
avg realized: ±3.3%

Jan 29 '25Jan 29 '25confirmed±4.0%▲+0.55%×0.14

Apr 16 '25Apr 16 '25confirmed±3.2%▼−0.35%×0.11

Jul 16 '25Jul 16 '25confirmed±3.7%▲+1.76%×0.47

Oct 15 '25Oct 15 '25confirmed±3.3%▼−5.78%×1.78

Jan 28 '26Jan 28 '26confirmed±3.4%▲+2.24%×0.65

Q1 FY26Apr 15 '26confirmed±3.1%▲+2.36%×0.76

Q2 FY26Jul 15 '26confirmed±2.9%▼−9.43%×3.28

Q3 FY26Oct 14 '26confirmed±3.2%▼−4.23%×1.34

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q3 FY26±3.2%▼−4.23%×1.34

Q2 FY26±2.9%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Nov 5 close

1.96OI · 10 expiries · Nov 5 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

430+22%Nov 137d1.01426+71%1.01

3,191+20%Nov 2014d0.565,649+21%0.56

108+42%Nov 2721d0.62175+169%0.62

3—Dec 428d0.437—0.43

3—Dec 1135d3.001—3.00

3,909+2%Dec 1842d1.063,697+16%1.06

0—Dec 2448d—0——

12,453+21%Jan 1570d1.259,936+26%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 137d430+22%426+71%1.01

Nov 2014d3,191+20%5,649+21%0.56

Nov 2721d108+42%175

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±10.8%

Funds 4

GLO±0.2%

XLF±0.2%

REVS±0.1%

JEPI±0.1%

Dashed = straddleMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

11.00%as filednet margin · revenue −1.77% QoQ · +2.95% YoY

Revenue$23.1B−1.77%

Pre-tax income$3.2B−23.12%

Net income$2.5B11.00%−23.23%

Tax$694M−22.72%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 6 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 16:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×2.13· ±2.4% vs ±1.1% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±2.4%3 of 11×2.13

NFPjobs report±1.7%5 of 10×1.51

PPIproducer prices±1.5%5 of 11×1.39

FOMCrate decision±1.3%9 of 24×1.20

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.3%13 of 20×1.18

GDPgross domestic product±1.1%15 of 20×1.00

CPROFcorporate profits±0.9%9 of 12×0.86

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 4.37 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 14 '26 · confirmed	4.37	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 15 '26 · confirmed	5.67	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 15 '26 · confirmed	4.80	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod