How often does PepsiCo move more than the options market prices?

7 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

PEPNasdaqBeverages

PepsiCo Inc (PEP) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

137.33

Closed19:47 ET

Open136.67Volume19.5MMkt cap$187.2BP/E17.23EPS7.97Div yield4.23%

Day136.31 – 138.4548%52-wk123.47 – 166.4132%

PEP

PepsiCo Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 2

after close · in 93 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+3.73%

vs ±2.9% implied · ×1.31

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 8 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

14.00%

of PEP revenue · Walmart Inc. and Sam's Club

customerPEP 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.66%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26125d lag

3,429 managers

Top fund weight

4.32%

PEP weight · XLP

N-PORTJun 30 '26

13 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

PepsiCo (PEP) is expected to report on Feb 2 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

7 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±3.1%
avg realized: ±4.4%

Feb 4 '25Feb 4 '25confirmed±2.8%▼−4.51%×1.62

Apr 24 '25Apr 24 '25confirmed±2.9%▼−4.89%×1.66

Jul 17 '25Jul 17 '25confirmed±3.5%▲+7.45%×2.11

Oct 8 '25Oct 8 '25confirmed±3.2%▲+4.23%×1.32

Feb 3 '26Feb 3 '26confirmed±3.3%▲+4.93%×1.50

Q1 FY26Apr 16 '26confirmed±3.6%▲+2.28%×0.64

Q2 FY26Jul 9 '26confirmed±2.9%▼−3.26%×1.14

Q3 FY26Oct 8 '26confirmed±2.9%▲+3.73%×1.31

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q3 FY26±2.9%▲+3.73%×1.31

Q2 FY26±2.9%▼−3.26%×1.14

Q1 FY26±3.6%▲+2.28%×0.64

Feb '26±3.3%▲+4.93%×1.50

Oct '25±3.2%▲+4.23%×1.32

Jul '25±3.5%▲+7.45%×2.11

2 older reports

Apr '25±2.9%▼−4.89%×1.66

Feb '25±2.8%▼−4.51%×1.62

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.50OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

2,855+77%Nov 65d0.555,153+56%0.55

3,294+21%Nov 1312d0.635,223+17%0.63

20,614+7%Nov 2019d0.8025,856+5%0.80

886+314%Nov 2726d0.224,027+304%0.22

6—Dec 433d0.1735—0.17

13—Dec 1140d0.1871—0.18

17,213+2%Dec 1847d0.4637,697−8%0.46

26,1490%Jan 1575d0.6043,523+1%0.60

report · Feb 2 · after close · est.

20,162+2%Mar 19138d40,153+183%

1,706+9%Apr 16166d1.121,529+11%1.12

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 65d2,855+77%5,153+56%0.55

Nov 1312d3,294+21%5,223+17%0.63

Nov 2019d20,614+7%25,856+5%0.80

Nov 2726d886+314%4,027+304%0.22

Dec 433d6—35—0.17

Dec 1140d13—71—0.18

Dec 1847d17,213+2%37,697−8%0.46

Jan 1575d26,1490%43,523+1%0.60

report · Feb 2 · after close · est.

Mar 19138d20,162+2%40,153+183%0.50

Apr 16166d1,706+9%1,529+11%1.12

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

12.15%as filednet margin · revenue +4.52% QoQ · +5.59% YoY

Revenue

$25.3B+4.52% QoQ

Gross profit

$13.8B+4.90% QoQ

54.42% margin

Operating income

$4.3B+5.89% QoQ

16.86% margin

Pre-tax income

$3.9B+1.35% QoQ

Net income

$3.1B+2.20% QoQ

12.15% margin

Cost of revenue

$11.5B+4.07% QoQ

Operating expenses

$9.5B+4.47% QoQ

Other expense

$356M

Tax

$834M−1.65% QoQ

Revenue$25.3B+4.52%

Gross profit

$13.8B+4.90%

54.42% margin

Operating income

$4.3B+5.89%

16.86% margin

Pre-tax income

$3.9B+1.35%

Net income

$3.1B+2.20%

12.15% margin

Cost of revenue

$11.5B+4.07%

Operating expenses

$9.5B+4.47%

Other expense

$356M

Tax$834M−1.65%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 5 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPROF ×1.24· ±1.2% vs ±0.9% · 12 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPROFcorporate profits±1.2%4 of 12×1.24

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.1%9 of 20×1.23

PPIproducer prices±1.1%4 of 11×1.22

GDPgross domestic product±1.1%10 of 20×1.14

FOMCrate decision±1.0%7 of 24×1.07

CPIconsumer prices±0.9%5 of 11×1.00

NFPjobs report±0.8%7 of 10×0.83

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±0.9% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±0.9% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.23 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 8 '26 · confirmed	2.23	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 9 '26 · confirmed	2.18	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 16 '26 · confirmed	1.70	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod