How often does Old National Bancorp move more than the options market prices?

0 of the last 7 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

ONBNasdaqNational Commercial Banks

Old National Bancorp (ONB) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

25.72

+0.30 · +1.18%

Regular session10:16 ET

Open25.82Volume4.4MMkt cap$9.6BP/E10.46EPS2.46Div yield2.26%

Day25.71 – 26.282%52-wk19.13 – 27.2182%

ONB

Old National Bancorp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 20

before open · in 77 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−2.96%

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 21 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Supply chain

13F top-10 QoQ

−0.31%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

452 managers

Top fund weight

0.28%

ONB weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

5 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Old National Bancorp (ONB) is expected to report on Jan 20 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

0 of 7≥ implied

avg implied: ±8.7%
avg realized: ±2.3%

Jan 21 '25Jan 21 '25confirmed±5.7%▲+3.18%×0.56

Apr 22 '25Apr 22 '25confirmed±7.7%▲+3.80%×0.49

Jul 22 '25Jul 22 '25confirmed±5.8%▼−1.50%×0.26

Oct 22 '25Oct 22 '25confirmed±11.5%▲+0.63%×0.05

Jan 21 '26Jan 21 '26confirmed±8.4%▲+4.89%×0.58

Q1 FY26Apr 22 '26confirmed±12.6%▲+1.05%×0.08

Q2 FY26Jul 22 '26confirmed±9.4%▲+0.84%×0.09

Q3 FY26Oct 21 '26confirmed—▼−2.96%—

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q3 FY26—▼−2.96%—

Q2 FY26±9.4%+0.84%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 2 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.04OI · 2 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

100%Dec 1844d0.052010%0.05

report · Jan 20 · before open · est.

50%Mar 19135d1160%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Dec 1844d100%2010%0.05

report · Jan 20 · before open · est.

Mar 19135d50%1160%0.04

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

35.64%as filednet margin · revenue −2.71% QoQ · +1.09% YoY

Revenue$713M−2.71%

Pre-tax income$324M−0.13%

Net income$254M35.64%+0.23%

Tax$70M−1.40%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 10:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.40· ±1.9% vs ±1.3% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±1.9%10 of 24×1.40

PPIproducer prices±1.5%5 of 10×1.10

GDPgross domestic product±0.9%8 of 19×0.69

PCEpersonal income & outlays±0.9%10 of 19×0.69

NFPjobs report±0.9%3 of 10×0.67

CPROFcorporate profits±0.9%6 of 12×0.67

CPIconsumer prices±0.6%5 of 10×0.46

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.3% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.3% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.66 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 21 '26 · confirmed	0.66	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 22 '26 · confirmed	0.65	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 22 '26 · confirmed	0.59	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod