What move does the options market price into ON Semiconductor's report?

Implied ±7.7%, either direction.

How often does ON Semiconductor move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

ONNasdaqSemiconductors & Related Devices

ON Semiconductor Corp (ON) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

71.67

−3.57 · −4.75%

post 71.81 +0.20%

Closed19:54 ET

Open72.29Volume16.6MMkt cap$27.9BP/E46.93EPS1.53

Day69.93 – 72.4674%52-wk44.56 – 134.9230%

ON Semiconductor Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±7.7%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±4.9%·×1.58·rich

66.1777.17

straddle ±9.5%

spot 71.67exp Nov 6ATM strike 72ATM straddle 8.02IV 101%

Oct 30 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 2

after close · in 2 days

confirmedQ3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+0.47%

vs ±9.6% implied · ×0.05

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 3 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

11.00%

of ON revenue · One distributor

customerON 10-K

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+6.65%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

1,004 managers

Top fund weight

1.65%

ON weight · SOXX

N-PORTJun 30 '26

12 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

ON Semiconductor (ON) reports on Nov 2 after close (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±9.1%
avg realized: ±4.9%

Oct 28 '24Oct 28 '24confirmed±8.0%▲+1.39%×0.17

Feb 10 '25Feb 10 '25confirmed±8.3%▼−8.21%×0.99

May 5 '25May 5 '25confirmed±8.4%▼−8.35%×1.00

Aug 4 '25Aug 4 '25confirmed±8.6%▼−15.58%×1.80

Q3 FY25Nov 3 '25confirmed±11.5%▲+0.76%×0.07

Feb 9 '26Feb 9 '26confirmed±8.1%▲+3.50%×0.43

Q1 FY26May 4 '26confirmed±10.3%▲+0.62%×0.06

Q2 FY26Aug 3 '26confirmed±9.6%▲+0.47%×0.05

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q2 FY26±9.6%▲+0.47%×0.05

Q1 FY26±10.3%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 11 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.09OI · 11 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 6 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

2,777+24%Nov 66d2,556+10%

2,135+3%Nov 1313d0.852,518+11%0.85

8,378+1%Nov 2020d0.2731,4760%0.27

954+894%Nov 2727d1.43665+296%1.43

56+12%Dec 434d0.9758+76%0.97

6 later expiries

0—Dec 1141d—0——

12,965+22%Dec 1848d0.80

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 66d2,777+24%2,556+10%1.09

Nov 1313d2,135+3%2,518+11%0.85

Nov 2020d8,378+1%31,4760%0.27

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±9.5%

Funds 4

SOXX±0.2%

SOXL±0.1%

SMH±0.1%

XLK±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

14.19%as filednet margin · revenue +5.96% QoQ · +9.18% YoY

Revenue

$1.6B+5.96% QoQ

Gross profit

$616M+5.69% QoQ

38.43% margin

Operating income

$259M+584.27% QoQ

16.13% margin

Pre-tax income

$271M+707.40% QoQ

Net income

$228M+791.49% QoQ

14.19% margin

Cost of revenue

$987M+6.13% QoQ

Operating expenses

$358M−43.80% QoQ

R&D $141M

SG&A $102M

Marketing $63M

Other operating $52M

Tax

$43M+470.94% QoQ

Other income

$12M+39.77% QoQ

Revenue$1.6B+5.96%

Gross profit

$616M+5.69%

38.43% margin

Operating income

$259M+584.27%

16.13% margin

Pre-tax income

$271M+707.40%

Net income

$228M+791.49%

14.19% margin

Cost of revenue

$987M+6.13%

Operating expenses

$358M−43.80%

R&D $141M

SG&A $102M

Marketing $63M

Other income$12M+39.77%

Tax$43M+470.94%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jul 3 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.67· ±4.3% vs ±2.6% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±4.3%6 of 10×1.67

PPIproducer prices±3.1%4 of 10×1.21

CPIconsumer prices±3.0%7 of 10×1.15

FOMCrate decision±2.6%10 of 24×1.00

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.0%9 of 19×0.77

GDPgross domestic product±1.8%9 of 19×0.70

CPROFcorporate profits±1.1%5 of 12×0.44

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±2.6% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.6% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.56 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 3 '26 · confirmed	0.56	—
Q1 FY26	May 4 '26 · confirmed	-0.08	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 3 '25 · confirmed	0.63	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod