How often does Novavax move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

NVAXNasdaqBiological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)

Novavax Inc (NVAX) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

9.76

−0.89 · −8.39%

post 9.78 +0.24%

Closed19:52 ET

Open10.67Volume8.2MMkt cap$1.6BEPS-0.48

Day9.41 – 10.9424%52-wk6.20 – 13.3950%

NVAX

Novavax Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 25

before open · in 111 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−8.17%

vs ±11.7% implied · ×0.70

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Nov 5 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

2dPFE · customerPfizer names Cecile Guegan CFO; $1,300,000 base, $1,300,000 target incentive
6dSNY · customerSanofi Q3 sales €14,444 million, business EPS €3.55; upgrades 2026 guidance
7dTAK · customerTakeda: six-month revenue JPY 2,407.0 billion; net profit JPY 305,716 million

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+7.40%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26129d lag

267 managers

Top fund weight

0.66%

NVAX weight · XBI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Novavax (NVAX) is expected to report on Feb 25 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±11.2%
avg realized: ±9.3%

May 8 '25May 8 '25confirmed±13.1%▲+11.93%×0.91

Aug 6 '25Aug 6 '25confirmed±11.4%▲+12.63%×1.11

Q3 FY25Nov 6 '25confirmed±12.8%▼−1.30%×0.10

Jan 12 '26Jan 12 '26confirmed±6.2%▲+6.60%×1.06

Q1 FY26Feb 26 '26confirmed±10.2%▲+17.42%×1.71

May 6 '26May 6 '26confirmed±10.2%▲+15.56%×1.53

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±14.5%▲+0.52%×0.04

Q3 FY26Nov 5 '26confirmed±11.7%▼−8.17%×0.70

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q3 FY26±11.7%▼−8.17%×0.70

Q2 FY26±14.5%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 8 expiries · Nov 4 close

0.25OI · 8 expiries · Nov 4 closeP/C open interest · Apr 16 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

5 nearer expiries

3,287+1311%Nov 60d0.526,327+128%0.52

1,008+202%Nov 137d0.442,271+95%0.44

3,298+17%Nov 2014d0.2811,930+27%0.28

872+49%Nov 2721d0.581,497+26%0.58

54—Dec 428d1.5934—1.59

598+77%Dec 1842d0.222,772+138%0.22

33,604+2%Jan 1570d0.4968,589+1%0.49

report · Feb 25 · before open · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

5 nearer expiries

Nov 60d3,287+1311%6,327+128%0.52

Nov 137d1,008+202%2,271+95%0.44

Nov 2014d3,298+17%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

−45.94%as filednet margin · revenue +20.46% QoQ · −3.05% YoY

Revenue$68M+20.46%

Gross profit$45M65.61%+5.55%

Operating income−$31M−45.80%+43.03%

Pre-tax income−$30M+42.62%

Net income−$31M−45.94%+41.23%

Cost of revenue$23M+64.87%

Operating expenses$76M−21.84%

Tax$2M+0.64%

Other income$2M−49.63%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.32· ±4.8% vs ±3.6% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±4.8%4 of 10×1.32

CPIconsumer prices±3.3%7 of 10×0.90

FOMCrate decision±3.1%9 of 24×0.85

PCEpersonal income & outlays±3.1%6 of 19×0.84

NFPjobs report±2.9%4 of 10×0.79

CPROFcorporate profits±2.2%3 of 12×0.62

GDPgross domestic product±2.1%5 of 19×0.58

Bar = avg |move| to ±5% · tick = ±3.6% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±3.6% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.19 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Nov 5 '26 · confirmed	-0.19	—
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	-0.32	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 26 '26 · confirmed	-0.06	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 6 '25 · confirmed	-1.25	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod