How often does Nelnet move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

NNINYSEPersonal Credit Institutions

Nelnet Inc (NNI) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

126.07

+3.53 · +2.88%

Regular session10:51 ET

Open127.55Volume97,824Mkt cap$4.4BP/E15.04EPS8.38Div yield1.08%

Day126.07 – 127.550%52-wk116.02 – 143.6436%

NNI

Nelnet Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

after close · in 1 day

confirmedQ3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−2.51%

vs ±3.8% implied · ×0.66

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 6 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

21.00%

of NNI revenue · Department of Education

customerNNI 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+0.10%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

213 managers

Top fund weight

0.06%

NNI weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

5 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Nelnet (NNI) reports on Nov 5 after close (confirmed date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±5.6%
avg realized: ±5.4%

Nov 7 '24Nov 7 '24confirmed±6.8%▼−8.31%×1.22

Feb 27 '25Feb 27 '25confirmed±4.8%▲+9.58%×1.98

May 8 '25May 8 '25confirmed±7.8%▲+5.92%×0.76

Aug 6 '25Aug 6 '25confirmed±4.1%▼−0.23%×0.06

Q3 FY25Nov 6 '25confirmed±6.6%▲+2.22%×0.34

Q1 FY26Feb 26 '26confirmed±4.8%▼−1.17%×0.24

May 7 '26May 7 '26confirmed±6.1%▼−13.43%×2.20

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±3.8%▼−2.51%×0.66

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q2 FY26±3.8%▼−2.51%×0.66

May '26±6.1%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 23 close

0.00OI · 3 expiries · Oct 23 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

0—Nov 2016d77—

20%Dec 1844d0.2290%0.22

0—Mar 19135d0.001000%0.00

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d0—77—0.00

Dec 1844d20%90%0.22

Mar 19135d0—1000%0.00

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

11.61%as filednet margin · revenue −6.55% QoQ · −27.56% YoY

Revenue$392M−6.55%

Pre-tax income$65M−13.54%

Net income$45M11.61%−18.22%

Tax$20M−0.59%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 10:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×2.04· ±2.1% vs ±1.0% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±2.1%4 of 10×2.04

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.1%6 of 19×1.11

FOMCrate decision±1.1%10 of 24×1.03

PPIproducer prices±0.9%6 of 10×0.87

CPROFcorporate profits±0.8%7 of 12×0.76

GDPgross domestic product±0.7%7 of 19×0.73

CPIconsumer prices±0.7%4 of 10×0.71

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.0% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.0% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.85 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	1.85	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 26 '26 · confirmed	1.97	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 6 '25 · confirmed	2.94	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod