How often does Merck move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

MRKNYSEPharmaceutical Preparations

Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

149.47

Closed19:54 ET

Open148.88Volume12.3MMkt cap$368.9BP/E117.69EPS1.27Div yield2.27%

Day148.06 – 150.7752%52-wk79.67 – 156.0091%

MRK

Merck & Co., Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 2

before open · in 94 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+3.83%

vs ±3.4% implied · ×1.11

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 29 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

10hLGND · supplierLigand posts Q3 net loss of $28,485 thousand, nine-month income of $6,678 thousand
18hOGN · customerOrganon furnishes non‑GAAP supplemental metrics for quarter ended September 30, 2026
19hABOS · customerAcumen Pharmaceuticals: phase 2 sabirnetug failed primary endpoint; will cease development

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+2.78%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

3,848 managers

Top fund weight

5.52%

MRK weight · XLV

N-PORTJun 30 '26

14 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Merck (MRK) is expected to report on Feb 2 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±4.1%
avg realized: ±2.5%

Feb 4 '25Feb 4 '25confirmed±4.3%▼−9.07%×2.12

Apr 24 '25Apr 24 '25confirmed±4.8%▲+1.40%×0.29

Jul 29 '25Jul 29 '25confirmed±4.3%▼−1.70%×0.40

Q3 FY25Oct 30 '25confirmed±3.7%▼−0.35%×0.09

Feb 3 '26Feb 3 '26confirmed±4.3%▲+2.18%×0.51

Q1 FY26Apr 30 '26confirmed±3.9%▼−1.60%×0.41

Q2 FY26Aug 4 '26confirmed±4.1%▲+0.18%×0.04

Oct 29 '26Oct 29 '26confirmed±3.4%▲+3.83%×1.11

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Oct '26±3.4%▲+3.83%×1.11

Q2 FY26±4.1%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.49OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

3,779+17%Nov 66d0.904,187+13%0.90

1,903+8%Nov 1313d0.782,441+20%0.78

42,366+22%Nov 2020d0.8549,847+31%0.85

562+165%Nov 2727d0.212,683+2407%0.21

225+423%Dec 434d0.50450+51%0.50

4—Dec 1141d0.1724—0.17

32,373+3%Dec 1848d0.5855,8920%0.58

58,1240%Jan 1576d0.9660,312+3%0.96

report · Feb 2 · before open · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 66d3,779+17%4,187+13%0.90

Nov 1313d1,903+8%2,441+20%0.78

Nov 2020d42,366+22%49,847

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−8.05%as filednet margin · revenue +1.97% QoQ · +5.07% YoY

Revenue$16.6B+1.97%

Gross profit$12.2B73.54%+1.00%

Operating income−$584M−3.52%+82.80%

Pre-tax income−$683M+80.67%

Net income−$1.3B−8.05%+68.49%

Cost of revenue$4.4B+4.77%

Operating expenses$12.8B−17.38%

Tax$654M−7.76%

Other expense−$99M+28.26%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.53· ±1.8% vs ±1.2% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±1.8%7 of 11×1.53

CPIconsumer prices±1.5%5 of 11×1.27

CPROFcorporate profits±1.4%3 of 12×1.23

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.4%9 of 19×1.21

GDPgross domestic product±1.2%7 of 19×1.04

NFPjobs report±1.1%5 of 10×0.94

FOMCrate decision±0.9%13 of 25×0.75

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.2% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.2% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -0.54 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 4 '26 · confirmed	-0.54	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 30 '26 · confirmed	-1.72	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 30 '25 · confirmed	2.32	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod