How often does Altria move more than the options market prices?

6 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

MONYSECigarettes

Altria Group, Inc. (MO) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

78.04

+1.29 · +1.68%

post 78.00 −0.05%

Closed19:50 ET

Open77.87Volume20.5MMkt cap$129.8BP/E16.08EPS4.85Div yield5.50%

Day77.68 – 78.7829%52-wk52.17 – 79.8193%

Altria Group, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 28

before open · in 88 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+5.15%

vs ±3.1% implied · ×1.68

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 29 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

79dDIT · customerDIT — trading halt (M) · resumed 09:57 ET

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+6.89%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

2,576 managers

Top fund weight

4.53%

MO weight · XLP

N-PORTJun 30 '26

12 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Altria (MO) is expected to report on Jan 28 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

6 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±3.1%
avg realized: ±5.1%

Jan 30 '25Jan 30 '25confirmed±3.3%▼−2.13%×0.65

Apr 29 '25Apr 29 '25confirmed±3.3%▲+1.00%×0.30

Jul 30 '25Jul 30 '25confirmed±2.7%▲+3.61%×1.34

Oct 30 '25Oct 30 '25confirmed±3.0%▼−7.81%×2.60

Jan 29 '26Jan 29 '26confirmed±3.0%▼−5.34%×1.76

Q1 FY26Apr 30 '26confirmed±2.9%▲+6.52%×2.24

Q2 FY26Jul 30 '26confirmed±3.3%▼−9.32%×2.84

Q3 FY26Oct 29 '26confirmed±3.1%▲+5.15%×1.68

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q3 FY26±3.1%▲+5.15%×1.68

Q2 FY26±3.3%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 8 expiries · Oct 28 close

0.84OI · 8 expiries · Oct 28 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

5 nearer expiries

15,1990%Nov 65d3.054,978+2%3.05

1,202+2%Nov 1312d0.422,8890%0.42

8,6150%Nov 2019d0.5116,933+3%0.51

512+8%Nov 2726d0.361,4160%0.36

0—Dec 433d—0——

21,603−1%Dec 1847d0.5538,9250%0.55

53,947+1%Jan 1575d1.1248,262+1%1.12

report · Jan 28 · before open · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

5 nearer expiries

Nov 65d15,1990%4,978+2%3.05

Nov 1312d1,202+2%2,8890%0.42

Nov 2019d8,6150%16,933

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

41.00%as filednet margin · revenue +0.34% QoQ · +0.99% YoY

Revenue

$6.1B+0.34% QoQ

Gross profit

$3.9B+3.17% QoQ

64.27% margin

Operating income

$3.3B+5.64% QoQ

54.03% margin

Pre-tax income

$3.3B+12.33% QoQ

Net income

$2.5B+9.40% QoQ

41.00% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.2B−4.36% QoQ

Operating expenses

$628M−8.05% QoQ

Other expense

$23M

Tax

$776M+22.98% QoQ

Revenue$6.1B+0.34%

Gross profit

$3.9B+3.17%

64.27% margin

Operating income

$3.3B+5.64%

54.03% margin

Pre-tax income

$3.3B+12.33%

Net income

$2.5B+9.40%

41.00% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.2B−4.36%

Operating expenses

$628M−8.05%

Other expense

$23M

Tax$776M+22.98%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×2.00· ±1.9% vs ±0.9% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±1.9%6 of 10×2.00

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.6%11 of 19×1.75

GDPgross domestic product±1.6%11 of 19×1.71

NFPjobs report±1.4%7 of 10×1.49

CPIconsumer prices±1.3%5 of 10×1.44

FOMCrate decision±1.1%13 of 24×1.22

CPROFcorporate profits±0.7%7 of 12×0.71

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±0.9% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±0.9% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.51 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 29 '26 · confirmed	1.51	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 30 '26 · confirmed	1.37	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 30 '26 · confirmed	1.30	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod