What move does the options market price into Magnolia Oil & Gas's report?

Implied ±15.9%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Magnolia Oil & Gas move more than the options market prices?

0 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

MGYNYSECrude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp (MGY) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

24.70

−0.35 · −1.40%

post 24.81 +0.45%

After hours17:55 ETdelayed

Open26.85Volume3.1MMkt cap$5.9BP/E13.94Div yield2.63%

Day24.73 – 26.854%52-wk20.67 – 32.3336%

MGY

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±15.9%implied · straddle

20.7328.59

spot 24.66exp Mar 19ATM strike 25ATM straddle 4.62IV 39%

Nov 3 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 17

after close · in 106 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+2.47%

vs ±6.9% implied · ×0.36

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 1 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

61.00%

of MGY revenue · Two purchasers

customerMGY 10-K

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+5.26%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26126d lag

408 managers

Top fund weight

0.15%

MGY weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) is expected to report on Feb 17 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

0 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±8.2%
avg realized: ±2.6%

Feb 18 '25Feb 18 '25confirmed±6.2%▲+1.51%×0.24

Apr 30 '25Apr 30 '25confirmed±8.5%▲+2.73%×0.32

Jul 30 '25Jul 30 '25confirmed±8.7%▼−2.30%×0.26

Q3 FY25Oct 29 '25confirmed±9.7%▼−2.57%×0.26

Feb 5 '26Feb 5 '26confirmed±11.1%▲+2.98%×0.27

Q1 FY26May 6 '26confirmed±6.7%▼−1.74%×0.26

Q2 FY26Aug 5 '26confirmed±7.8%▲+4.34%×0.56

Oct 1 '26Oct 1 '26confirmed±6.9%▲+2.47%×0.36

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Oct '26±6.9%▲+2.47%×0.36

Q2 FY26±7.8%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 19 close

0.96OI · 3 expiries · Oct 19 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

909+9%Nov 2017d0.452,005+10%0.45

1,8650%Dec 1845d0.1611,343+1%0.16

report · Feb 17 · after close · est.

9280%Mar 19136d9680%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2017d909+9%2,005+10%0.45

Dec 1845d1,8650%11,343+1%0.16

report · Feb 17 · after close · est.

Mar 19136d9280%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±15.9%

Funds 4

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

37.96%as filednet margin · revenue +33.56% QoQ · +50.11% YoY

Revenue$479M+33.56%

Pre-tax income$232M+90.93%

Net income$182M37.96%+80.27%

Tax$51M+142.37%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 17:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.32· ±2.1% vs ±1.6% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±2.1%13 of 24×1.32

CPIconsumer prices±1.4%8 of 10×0.88

PPIproducer prices±1.2%4 of 10×0.79

NFPjobs report±1.2%5 of 10×0.78

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.1%8 of 19×0.68

GDPgross domestic product±0.7%10 of 19×0.47

CPROFcorporate profits±0.5%7 of 12×0.35

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.6% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.6% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.97 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 5 '26 · confirmed	0.97	—
Q1 FY26	May 6 '26 · confirmed	0.54	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 29 '25 · confirmed	0.40	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod