How often does MediaAlpha move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

MAXNYSEServices-Business Services, NEC

MediaAlpha, Inc. (MAX) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

15.03

−0.12 · −0.76%

post 14.91 −0.83%

After hours17:21 ETdelayed

Open15.25Volume2.3MMkt cap$896.8MP/E7.46EPS2.00

Day14.91 – 15.880%52-wk7.09 – 15.2296%

MAX

MediaAlpha, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 22

after close · in 110 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+20.56%

vs ±14.0% implied · ×1.47

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 28 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

1hALL · customerAllstate Reports Excellent Q3 2026 Results
2hAMZN · supplierMicrosoft and Amazon combine for a $400 billion market-cap boost — and these factors show why
2dPGR · customerProgressive posts Q3 net income $2,542 million; net premiums earned $21,869 million

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+4.30%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

154 managers

Top fund weight

0.01%

MAX weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

MediaAlpha (MAX) is expected to report on Feb 22 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±18.3%
avg realized: ±13.2%

Feb 24 '25Feb 24 '25confirmed±18.8%▼−18.49%×0.98

Apr 30 '25Apr 30 '25confirmed±16.9%▲+14.17%×0.84

Aug 6 '25Aug 6 '25confirmed±14.4%▲+10.05%×0.70

Oct 29 '25Oct 29 '25confirmed±18.4%▲+9.98%×0.54

Feb 23 '26Feb 23 '26confirmed±20.4%▲+15.44%×0.76

Q1 FY26Apr 29 '26confirmed±20.5%▼−14.90%×0.73

Q2 FY26Jul 29 '26confirmed±22.6%▼−1.88%×0.08

Q3 FY26Oct 28 '26confirmed±14.0%▲+20.56%×1.47

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q3 FY26±14.0%▲+20.56%×1.47

Q2 FY26±22.6%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 2 expiries · Oct 29 close

0.41OI · 2 expiries · Oct 29 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · nearest expiry

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

9220%Nov 2016d2,236+1%

1010%Feb 19107d0.025,895−8%0.02

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d9220%2,236+1%0.41

Feb 19107d1010%5,895−8%0.02

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

7.81%as filednet margin · revenue +18.64% QoQ · +22.65% YoY

Revenue

$376M+18.64% QoQ

Gross profit

$55M+22.48% QoQ

14.72% margin

Operating income

$29M+44.44% QoQ

7.67% margin

Pre-tax income

$37M−32.54% QoQ

Net income

$29M−29.73% QoQ

7.81% margin

Cost of revenue

$321M+18.00% QoQ

Operating expenses

$26M+5.08% QoQ

SG&A $15M

R&D $6M

Marketing $5M

Tax

$8M−41.34% QoQ

Other income

$8M−76.28% QoQ

Revenue$376M+18.64%

Gross profit

$55M+22.48%

14.72% margin

Operating income

$29M+44.44%

7.67% margin

Pre-tax income

$37M−32.54%

Net income

$29M−29.73%

7.81% margin

Cost of revenue

$321M+18.00%

Operating expenses

$26M+5.08%

SG&A $15M

R&D $6M

Marketing $5M

Other income$8M−76.28%

Tax$8M−41.34%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 17:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.44· ±3.6% vs ±2.5% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±3.6%4 of 10×1.44

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.9%7 of 19×1.14

GDPgross domestic product±2.5%11 of 19×1.00

CPIconsumer prices±2.0%5 of 10×0.81

CPROFcorporate profits±1.8%7 of 12×0.72

FOMCrate decision±1.6%11 of 24×0.63

PPIproducer prices±1.5%5 of 10×0.60

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±2.5% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.5% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.46 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 28 '26 · confirmed	0.46	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 29 '26 · confirmed	0.65	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 29 '26 · confirmed	0.21	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod