How often does Mastercard move more than the options market prices?

5 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

MANYSEServices-Business Services, NEC

Mastercard Inc (MA) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

638.00

Closed19:52 ET

Open640.75Volume4.5MMkt cap$555.8BP/E33.35EPS19.13Div yield0.55%

Day635.05 – 648.0223%52-wk463.04 – 644.2497%

Mastercard Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 28

before open · in 89 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+4.16%

vs ±2.4% implied · ×1.75

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 29 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

1dJKHY · supplierJack Henry posts Q1 deconversion revenue of $17.9 million, sets FY27 estimate at $30.0 million
1dTBBK · customerBancorp reports 3Q 2026 net income $62.8 million, EPS $1.53, ROA 2.51%, ROE 36.0%
1dRVSB · customerRiverview Bancorp posts net income of $2.0 million, $0.10 diluted EPS in Q2 2027

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−1.81%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

3,631 managers

Top fund weight

5.46%

MA weight · XLF

N-PORTJun 30 '26

11 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Mastercard (MA) is expected to report on Jan 28 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

5 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±2.5%
avg realized: ±2.5%

Jan 30 '25Jan 30 '25confirmed±2.8%▲+3.14%×1.13

May 1 '25May 1 '25confirmed±2.3%▼−0.26%×0.12

Jul 31 '25Jul 31 '25confirmed±2.2%▲+1.32%×0.60

Oct 30 '25Oct 30 '25confirmed±2.5%▼−0.16%×0.06

Jan 29 '26Jan 29 '26confirmed±2.8%▲+4.29%×1.52

Q1 FY26Apr 30 '26confirmed±2.8%▼−4.25%×1.52

Q2 FY26Jul 30 '26confirmed±2.5%▲+2.49%×1.01

Q3 FY26Oct 29 '26confirmed±2.4%▲+4.16%×1.75

quarterimplied−5%0+5%realized×

Q3 FY26±2.4%▲+4.16%×1.75

Q2 FY26±2.5%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.33OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

1,964+15%Nov 66d1.811,087+48%1.81

1,353+5%Nov 1313d2.02670+4%2.02

12,1670%Nov 2020d0.9013,4990%0.90

326+133%Nov 2727d1.07306+283%1.07

44+91%Dec 434d1.1638+124%1.16

4—Dec 1141d0.3113—0.31

11,427+4%Dec 1848d1.328,666+4%1.32

15,035+8%Jan 1576d1.0514,339+9%1.05

report · Jan 28 · before open · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 66d1,964+15%1,087+48%1.81

Nov 1313d1,353+5%670+4%2.02

Nov 2020d12,1670%13,499

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

47.19%as filednet margin · revenue +5.71% QoQ · +14.01% YoY

Revenue

$9.8B+5.71% QoQ

Gross profit

$9.8B+5.71% QoQ

100.00% margin

Operating income

$5.9B+4.92% QoQ

59.77% margin

Pre-tax income

$5.7B+4.65% QoQ

Net income

$4.6B+5.47% QoQ

47.19% margin

Operating expenses

$3.9B+6.91% QoQ

SG&A $3.3B

Depreciation $326M

Marketing $252M

Other operating $74M

Other expense

$121M

Tax

$1.1B+1.37% QoQ

Revenue$9.8B+5.71%

Gross profit

$9.8B+5.71%

100.00% margin

Operating income

$5.9B+4.92%

59.77% margin

Pre-tax income

$5.7B+4.65%

Net income

$4.6B+5.47%

47.19% margin

Cost of revenue

Operating expenses

$3.9B+6.91%

SG&A $3.3B

Depreciation $326M

Marketing $252M

Other expense

$121M

Tax$1.1B+1.37%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

FOMC ×1.68· ±1.5% vs ±0.9% · 24 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

FOMCrate decision±1.5%13 of 24×1.68

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.4%11 of 19×1.52

NFPjobs report±1.2%3 of 10×1.33

PPIproducer prices±1.2%5 of 11×1.28

GDPgross domestic product±1.1%10 of 19×1.25

CPIconsumer prices±1.1%4 of 11×1.15

CPROFcorporate profits±0.7%4 of 12×0.74

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±0.9% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±0.9% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 5.28 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 29 '26 · confirmed	5.28	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 30 '26 · confirmed	4.97	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 30 '26 · confirmed	4.35	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod