What move does the options market price into El Pollo Loco's report?

Implied ±6.4%, either direction.

How often does El Pollo Loco move more than the options market prices?

1 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

LOCONasdaqRetail-Eating Places

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

16.27

+0.72 · +4.63%

Regular session12:24 ET

Open16.10Volume232,253Mkt cap$473.8MP/E13.67EPS1.19

Day15.92 – 16.27100%52-wk9.84 – 17.4085%

LOCO

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±6.4%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±6.0%·×1.06·fair

14.5616.54

straddle ±8.2%

spot 15.55exp Nov 20ATM strike 16ATM straddle 1.50IV 54%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structurethin chain

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

after close · in 1 day

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−7.39%

vs ±13.7% implied · ×0.54

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 6 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

13F top-10 QoQ

+7.18%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

151 managers

Top fund weight

0.02%

LOCO weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

El Pollo Loco (LOCO) is expected to report on Nov 5 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

1 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±10.5%
avg realized: ±6.0%

Oct 31 '24Oct 31 '24confirmed±6.8%▼−2.13%×0.31

Mar 6 '25Mar 6 '25confirmed±8.9%▼−0.09%×0.01

May 1 '25May 1 '25confirmed±8.4%▼−3.71%×0.44

Jul 31 '25Jul 31 '25confirmed±9.5%▲+1.46%×0.15

Q3 FY25Oct 30 '25confirmed±15.0%▲+12.80%×0.85

Q1 FY26Mar 12 '26confirmed±8.0%▲+16.91%×2.10

May 7 '26May 7 '26confirmed±13.8%▲+3.63%×0.26

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±13.7%▼−7.39%×0.54

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q2 FY26±13.7%▼−7.39%×0.54

May '26±13.8%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 28 close

0.65OI · 3 expiries · Oct 28 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

600%Nov 2016d930%

760%Dec 1844d0.80950%0.80

1530%Mar 19135d2.55600%2.55

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d600%930%0.65

Dec 1844d760%950%0.80

Mar 19135d1530%600%2.55

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±8.2%

Funds 3

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

Suppliers 1

KRT±3.0%×0.36

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 500dMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

9.88%as filednet margin · revenue +2.69% QoQ · +2.97% YoY

Revenue

$130M+2.69% QoQ

Gross profit

$42M+4.61% QoQ

32.80% margin

Operating income

$19M+52.93% QoQ

14.42% margin

Pre-tax income

$18M+56.51% QoQ

Net income

$13M+57.01% QoQ

9.88% margin

Cost of revenue

$87M+1.77% QoQ

Operating expenses

$24M−16.17% QoQ

Other operating $12M

SG&A $7M

Depreciation $4M

Other operating $725,000

Other expense

$706,000

Tax

$5M+55.30% QoQ

Revenue$130M+2.69%

Gross profit

$42M+4.61%

32.80% margin

Operating income

$19M+52.93%

14.42% margin

Pre-tax income

$18M+56.51%

Net income

$13M+57.01%

9.88% margin

Cost of revenue

$87M+1.77%

Operating expenses

$24M−16.17%

Other operating $12M

SG&A $7M

Depreciation $4M

Other expense

$706,000

Tax$5M+55.30%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jul 1 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 12:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.53· ±2.3% vs ±1.5% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±2.3%4 of 10×1.53

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.2%8 of 19×1.42

GDPgross domestic product±1.7%9 of 19×1.11

CPIconsumer prices±1.4%6 of 10×0.91

FOMCrate decision±1.3%15 of 24×0.87

PPIproducer prices±1.2%4 of 10×0.78

CPROFcorporate profits±1.0%6 of 12×0.65

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.5% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.5% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.43 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	0.43	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 12 '26 · confirmed	0.27	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 30 '25 · confirmed	0.25	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod