How often does Jakks Pacific move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 7 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

JAKKNasdaqGames, Toys & Children's Vehicles (No Dolls & Bicycles)

Jakks Pacific Inc (JAKK) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

31.60

0.00 · +0.01%

post 31.60 0.00%

Closed16:00 ET

Open31.57Volume306,700Mkt cap$364.0MP/E13.92EPS2.27Div yield3.16%

Day31.27 – 32.1140%52-wk14.18 – 33.2292%

JAKK

Jakks Pacific Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 19

before open · in 107 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+3.32%

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 23 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

filed ties

13F top-10 QoQ

+3.17%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

104 managers

Top fund weight

0.01%

JAKK weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Jakks Pacific (JAKK) is expected to report on Feb 19 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 7≥ implied

avg implied: ±13.5%
avg realized: ±8.2%

Feb 20 '25Feb 20 '25confirmed±9.0%▼−13.83%×1.54

Apr 29 '25Apr 29 '25confirmed±15.6%▼−0.87%×0.06

Jul 25 '25Jul 25 '25confirmed±13.3%▲+0.42%×0.03

Oct 31 '25Oct 31 '25confirmed±14.6%▼−5.13%×0.35

Feb 20 '26Feb 20 '26confirmed±9.1%▲+23.73%×2.60

Q1 FY26May 1 '26confirmed±16.8%▲+10.57%×0.63

Q2 FY26Jul 24 '26confirmed±16.1%▲+2.90%×0.18

Q3 FY26Oct 23 '26confirmed—▲+3.32%—

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q3 FY26—▲+3.32%—

Q2 FY26±16.1%▲+2.90%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.10OI · 3 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · nearest expiry

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

55—Nov 2016d549—

0—Dec 1844d0.00114—0.00

35+133%Jan 1572d0.19183+2%0.19

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d55—549—0.10

Dec 1844d0—114—0.00

Jan 1572d35+133%183+2%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

11.76%as filednet margin · revenue +82.58% QoQ · +20.36% YoY

Revenue

$254M+82.58% QoQ

Gross profit

$82M+81.27% QoQ

32.06% margin

Operating income

$37M+26419.01% QoQ

14.70% margin

Pre-tax income

$38M+397.19% QoQ

Net income

$30M+409.96% QoQ

11.76% margin

Cost of revenue

$173M+83.21% QoQ

Operating expenses

$44M−45.99% QoQ

SG&A $44M

Depreciation $178,000

Tax

$8M+353.23% QoQ

Other income

$249,000−96.77% QoQ

Revenue$254M+82.58%

Gross profit

$82M+81.27%

32.06% margin

Operating income

$37M+26419.01%

14.70% margin

Pre-tax income

$38M+397.19%

Net income

$30M+409.96%

11.76% margin

Cost of revenue

$173M+83.21%

Operating expenses

$44M−45.99%

SG&A $44M

Depreciation $178,000

Other income$249,000−96.77%

Tax$8M+353.23%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PCE ×1.14· ±2.4% vs ±2.1% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.4%7 of 19×1.14

GDPgross domestic product±2.3%9 of 19×1.12

FOMCrate decision±2.1%13 of 24×1.00

NFPjobs report±1.7%5 of 10×0.82

PPIproducer prices±1.5%5 of 10×0.74

CPIconsumer prices±1.5%5 of 10×0.71

CPROFcorporate profits±1.1%6 of 12×0.51

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±2.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.48 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 23 '26 · confirmed	2.48	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 24 '26 · confirmed	0.49	—
Q1 FY26	May 1 '26 · confirmed	-0.37	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod