What move does the options market price into Intel's report?

Implied ±21.3%, either direction · provisional.

How often does Intel move more than the options market prices?

5 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

INTCNasdaqSemiconductors & Related Devices

Intel Corp (INTC) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

65.32

−26.75 · −29.06%

post 64.89 −0.66%

Closed19:59 ET

Open68.87Volume455.6MMkt cap$349.5BEPS-2.36

Day63.67 – 69.3622%52-wk32.89 – 142.3529%

INTC

Intel Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±21.3%implied · straddle

51.7479.78

spot 65.76exp Feb 19ATM strike 65ATM straddle 16.50IV 58%

Oct 30 closeprovisional

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 21

after close · in 81 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−28.58%

vs ±5.9% implied · ×4.86

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 29 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

3dFTNT · customerFortinet posts Q3 revenue $2,078.4 million, net income $635.5 million, EPS $0.86
4dCNXN · customerPC Connection reports Q3 net income $31,458 thousand, net sales $874,313 thousand
4dFORM · supplierFormFactor posts third-quarter revenue $280.5 million, net income $73.8 million

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+2.11%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26125d lag

3,586 managers

Top fund weight

6.33%

INTC weight · SOXX

N-PORTJun 30 '26

16 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Intel (INTC) is expected to report on Jan 21 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

5 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±7.9%
avg realized: ±11.9%

Jan 30 '25Jan 30 '25confirmed±9.0%▼−2.90%×0.32

Apr 24 '25Apr 24 '25confirmed±6.7%▼−6.70%×1.00

Jul 24 '25Jul 24 '25confirmed±6.7%▼−8.53%×1.28

Oct 23 '25Oct 23 '25confirmed±7.8%▲+0.31%×0.04

Jan 22 '26Jan 22 '26confirmed±7.8%▼−17.03%×2.17

Q1 FY26Apr 23 '26confirmed±8.7%▲+23.60%×2.73

Q2 FY26Jul 23 '26confirmed±10.4%▼−7.89%×0.76

Q3 FY26Oct 29 '26confirmed±5.9%▼−28.58%×4.86

quarterimplied−30%0+30%realized×

Q3 FY26±5.9%▼−28.58%×4.86

Q2 FY26±10.4%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 11 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.70OI · 11 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

63,902−2%Nov 65d0.64100,306+30%0.64

31,458+1%Nov 1312d0.8238,545+14%0.82

322,8030%Nov 2019d0.51638,595+2%0.51

18,821+81%Nov 2726d0.9120,587+54%0.91

2,786+11%Dec 433d0.614,581+26%0.61

164—Dec 1140d0.37441—0.37

513,110+4%Dec 1847d0.92556,039+9%0.92

710,920+2%Jan 1575d1.07666,162+2%1.07

report · Jan 21 · after close · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 65d63,902−2%100,306+30%0.64

Nov 1312d31,458+1%38,545+14%0.82

Nov 2019d322,8030%638,595

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±21.3%

Funds 4

SOXX±1.4%

SMH±1.1%

IGPT±0.8%

XLK±0.8%

Suppliers 1

FORM±12.0%×0.56

Customers 2

MXL±16.2%×0.76

MRCY±4.6%×0.22

Dashed = straddle · × = co-movement · max 501dMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

21.32%as filednet margin · revenue +2.39% QoQ · +20.95% YoY

Revenue

$16.5B+2.39% QoQ

Gross profit

$7.1B+9.02% QoQ

42.97% margin

Operating income

$2.5B+40.42% QoQ

15.27% margin

Pre-tax income

$4.0B+136.81% QoQ

Net income

$3.5B+132.45% QoQ

21.32% margin

Cost of revenue

$9.4B−2.10% QoQ

Operating expenses

$4.6B−2.95% QoQ

R&D $3.5B

SG&A $1.0B

Other operating $54M

Tax

$462M+1493.10% QoQ

Other income

$1.5B+111.57% QoQ

Revenue$16.5B+2.39%

Gross profit

$7.1B+9.02%

42.97% margin

Operating income

$2.5B+40.42%

15.27% margin

Pre-tax income

$4.0B+136.81%

Net income

$3.5B+132.45%

21.32% margin

Cost of revenue

$9.4B−2.10%

Operating expenses

$4.6B−2.95%

R&D $3.5B

SG&A $1.0B

Other operating $54M

Other income$1.5B+111.57%

Tax$462M+1493.10%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 26 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Oct 30 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×2.01· ±5.7% vs ±2.8% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±5.7%5 of 10×2.01

PPIproducer prices±3.5%5 of 11×1.22

CPIconsumer prices±3.2%8 of 11×1.12

FOMCrate decision±3.0%15 of 25×1.07

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.5%10 of 20×0.89

GDPgross domestic product±2.0%11 of 20×0.72

CPROFcorporate profits±1.9%9 of 12×0.68

Bar = avg |move| to ±6% · tick = ±2.8% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.8% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.60 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 29 '26 · confirmed	0.60	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 23 '26 · confirmed	-2.16	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 23 '26 · confirmed	-0.73	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod