How often does Howmet Aerospace move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

HWMNYSERolling Drawing & Extruding of Nonferrous Metals

Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

199.51

Closed19:42 ET

Open204.83Volume3.7MMkt cap$79.2BP/E39.04EPS5.11Div yield0.25%

Day199.14 – 204.886%52-wk183.52 – 309.8513%

HWM

Howmet Aerospace Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 11

before open · in 103 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+5.51%

vs ±5.6% implied · ×0.99

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 29 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

3dBA · customerHere are Wednesday's biggest analyst calls: SpaceX, Nvidia, Apple, AMD, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, Boeing & more
4dRTX · customerRTX CFO to present at the Baird 2026 Global Industrial Conference

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−3.46%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

1,610 managers

Top fund weight

1.87%

HWM weight · XLI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

11 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Howmet Aerospace (HWM) is expected to report on Feb 11 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±5.9%
avg realized: ±4.1%

Feb 13 '25Feb 13 '25confirmed±6.9%▼−0.01%×0.00

May 1 '25May 1 '25confirmed±6.6%▲+6.82%×1.03

Jul 31 '25Jul 31 '25confirmed±5.6%▼−6.44%×1.15

Q3 FY25Oct 30 '25confirmed±6.0%▼−0.84%×0.14

Feb 12 '26Feb 12 '26confirmed±5.1%▲+6.04%×1.18

Q1 FY26May 7 '26confirmed±6.0%▲+6.28%×1.05

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±5.7%▼−0.58%×0.10

Oct 29 '26Oct 29 '26confirmed±5.6%▲+5.51%×0.99

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Oct '26±5.6%▲+5.51%×0.99

Q2 FY26±5.7%▼−0.58%×0.10

Q1 FY26±6.0%▲+6.28%×1.05

Feb '26±5.1%▲+6.04%×1.18

Q3 FY25±6.0%▼−0.84%×0.14

Jul '25±5.6%▼−6.44%×1.15

2 older reports

May '25±6.6%▲+6.82%×1.03

Feb '25±6.9%▼−0.01%×0.00

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 9 expiries · Oct 28 close

1.15OI · 9 expiries · Oct 28 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

5 nearer expiries

543+11%Nov 66d0.98552+3%0.98

294+8%Nov 1313d1.01292+7%1.01

21,7280%Nov 2020d9.572,271+6%9.57

89—Nov 2727d4.2421+2000%4.24

15+7%Dec 434d1.25120%1.25

5,0960%Dec 1848d0.836,1730%0.83

4,353−1%Jan 1576d0.666,588+2%0.66

report · Feb 11 · before open · est.

1,9960%Mar 19139d1,732+1%

430+3%Apr 16167d1.23351+3%1.23

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

5 nearer expiries

Nov 66d543+11%552+3%0.98

Nov 1313d294+8%292+7%1.01

Nov 2020d21,7280%2,271+6%9.57

Nov 2727d89—21+2000%4.24

Dec 434d15+7%120%1.25

Dec 1848d5,0960%6,1730%0.83

Jan 1576d4,353−1%6,588+2%0.66

report · Feb 11 · before open · est.

Mar 19139d1,9960%1,732+1%1.15

Apr 16167d430+3%351+3%1.23

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

20.98%as filednet margin · revenue +6.12% QoQ · +29.39% YoY

Revenue

$2.7B+6.12% QoQ

Gross profit

$1.0B+5.47% QoQ

37.11% margin

Operating income

$777M+9.28% QoQ

28.75% margin

Pre-tax income

$721M+11.09% QoQ

Net income

$567M+6.18% QoQ

20.98% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.7B+6.52% QoQ

Operating expenses

$226M−5.83% QoQ

SG&A $120M

Depreciation $93M

R&D $11M

Other operating $2M

Other expense

$56M

Tax

$154M+33.91% QoQ

Revenue$2.7B+6.12%

Gross profit

$1.0B+5.47%

37.11% margin

Operating income

$777M+9.28%

28.75% margin

Pre-tax income

$721M+11.09%

Net income

$567M+6.18%

20.98% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.7B+6.52%

Operating expenses

$226M−5.83%

SG&A $120M

Depreciation $93M

R&D $11M

Other expense

$56M

Tax$154M+33.91%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PCE ×1.50· ±2.2% vs ±1.5% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.2%9 of 19×1.50

NFPjobs report±1.6%5 of 10×1.09

CPIconsumer prices±1.5%5 of 10×1.01

FOMCrate decision±1.4%16 of 24×0.97

GDPgross domestic product±1.4%12 of 19×0.95

PPIproducer prices±1.4%8 of 10×0.93

CPROFcorporate profits±1.1%6 of 12×0.78

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.5% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.5% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.42 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	—	1.42	—
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	1.33	—
Q1 FY26	May 7 '26 · confirmed	1.44	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 30 '25 · confirmed	0.95	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod