How often does Hilton Worldwide move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

HLTNYSEHotels & Motels

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

356.45

−0.48 · −0.13%

post 358.00 +0.43%

Closed17:35 ET

Open357.50Volume1.6MMkt cap$79.4BP/E47.86EPS7.48Div yield0.17%

Day355.01 – 360.0060%52-wk253.04 – 364.5094%

HLT

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 10

before open · in 101 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−2.06%

vs ±3.6% implied · ×0.57

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 27 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

1dAXP · supplierAmerican Express issues $1,500,000,000 5.447% and $1,150,000,000 5.817% notes; $350,000,000 floating
1dAMZN · customerAmazon falls 2%, Intel dives 29%, as tech stocks sell off in post-earnings rout
1dHGV · customerHilton Grand Vacations starts $200 million ASR; initial delivery ~4.48 million shares

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

−8.15%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

1,297 managers

Top fund weight

1.87%

HLT weight · XLY

N-PORTJun 30 '26

11 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Hilton Worldwide (HLT) is expected to report on Feb 10 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±3.7%
avg realized: ±2.6%

Feb 6 '25Feb 6 '25confirmed±4.0%▲+4.86%×1.21

Apr 29 '25Apr 29 '25confirmed±5.9%▲+2.17%×0.37

Jul 23 '25Jul 23 '25confirmed±3.0%▼−2.55%×0.86

Oct 22 '25Oct 22 '25confirmed±3.0%▲+3.42%×1.13

Feb 11 '26Feb 11 '26confirmed±3.1%▲+0.44%×0.14

Q1 FY26Apr 28 '26confirmed±3.4%▼−2.73%×0.80

Q2 FY26Jul 28 '26confirmed±3.4%▼−2.54%×0.75

Q3 FY26Oct 27 '26confirmed±3.6%▼−2.06%×0.57

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q3 FY26±3.6%▼−2.06%×0.57

Q2 FY26±3.4%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 close

0.34OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

361+464%Nov 65d0.43838+8%0.43

69+33%Nov 1312d0.67103+61%0.67

2,016+8%Nov 2019d0.822,449+32%0.82

102+117%Nov 2726d1.7658+45%1.76

2—Dec 433d2.001—2.00

0—Dec 1140d—0——

2,871+3%Dec 1847d0.823,504−3%0.82

4,912+4%Jan 1575d0.975,053+3%0.97

report · Feb 10 · before open · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 65d361+464%838+8%0.43

Nov 1312d69+33%103+61%0.67

Nov 2019d2,016+8%2,449

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

16.12%as filednet margin · revenue −0.48% QoQ · +6.57% YoY

Revenue

$3.3B−0.48% QoQ

Gross profit

$3.1B−0.68% QoQ

91.85% margin

Operating income

$909M+5.94% QoQ

27.34% margin

Pre-tax income

$722M+6.18% QoQ

Net income

$536M+11.20% QoQ

16.12% margin

Cost of revenue

$271M+1.88% QoQ

Operating expenses

$2.1B−3.25% QoQ

Other operating $2.0B

SG&A $110M

Depreciation $52M

Other expense

$187M

Tax

$186M−6.06% QoQ

Revenue$3.3B−0.48%

Gross profit

$3.1B−0.68%

91.85% margin

Operating income

$909M+5.94%

27.34% margin

Pre-tax income

$722M+6.18%

Net income

$536M+11.20%

16.12% margin

Cost of revenue

$271M+1.88%

Operating expenses

$2.1B−3.25%

Other operating $2.0B

SG&A $110M

Depreciation $52M

Other expense

$187M

Tax$186M−6.06%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 17:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.14· ±1.2% vs ±1.1% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±1.2%4 of 11×1.14

NFPjobs report±1.2%5 of 10×1.10

FOMCrate decision±1.1%12 of 24×1.05

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.1%10 of 20×1.03

CPIconsumer prices±1.0%4 of 11×0.92

GDPgross domestic product±0.9%9 of 20×0.82

CPROFcorporate profits±0.9%4 of 12×0.80

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 2.37 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 27 '26 · confirmed	2.37	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 28 '26 · confirmed	2.10	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 28 '26 · confirmed	1.66	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod