How often does Granite Construction move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

GVANYSEHeavy Construction Other Than Bldg Const - Contractors

Granite Construction Inc (GVA) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

134.12

+5.21 · +4.04%

post 131.49 −1.96%

After hours17:48 ETdelayed

Open128.91Volume955,474Mkt cap$5.7BEPS-6.05Div yield0.40%

Day128.91 – 134.4447%52-wk96.86 – 161.7753%

GVA

Granite Construction Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 11

before open · in 100 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+8.97%

vs ±6.8% implied · ×1.31

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 29 '26 · confirmedthin chain

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

70.00%

of GVA revenue · Federal, state and local government agencies and authorities

customerGVA 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+7.27%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26126d lag

444 managers

Top fund weight

0.22%

GVA weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Granite Construction (GVA) is expected to report on Feb 11 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±6.4%
avg realized: ±5.1%

Feb 13 '25Feb 13 '25confirmed±6.3%▲+0.58%×0.09

May 1 '25May 1 '25confirmed±7.8%▼−2.36%×0.30

Aug 7 '25Aug 7 '25confirmed±5.2%▲+8.14%×1.58

Nov 6 '25Nov 6 '25confirmed±5.9%▼−3.28%×0.56

Feb 12 '26Feb 12 '26confirmed±4.8%▼−2.97%×0.61

Q1 FY26Apr 30 '26confirmed±6.8%▲+11.85%×1.75

Q2 FY26Jul 30 '26confirmed±7.7%▼−2.51%×0.33

Q3 FY26Oct 29 '26confirmed±6.8%thin chain▲+8.97%×1.31

quarterimplied−15%0+15%realized×

Q3 FY26±6.8%▲+8.97%×1.31

Q2 FY26±7.7%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.35OI · 3 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

241+180%Nov 2017d1.04231−2%1.04

51+6%Dec 1845d0.14376−1%0.14

report · Feb 11 · before open · est.

58+12%Mar 19136d43+2%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2017d241+180%231−2%1.04

Dec 1845d51+6%376−1%0.14

report · Feb 11 · before open · est.

Mar 19136d58+12%

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

0.77%as filednet margin · revenue +21.32% QoQ · +23.22% YoY

Revenue

$1.8B+21.32% QoQ

Gross profit

$336M+40.62% QoQ

19.01% margin

Operating income

$224M+76.91% QoQ

12.70% margin

Pre-tax income

$67M+128.06% QoQ

Net income

$14M+105.01% QoQ

0.77% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.4B+17.54% QoQ

Operating expenses

$111M−0.48% QoQ

SG&A $104M

Other operating $7M

Other expense

$157M

Tax

$57M+76.03% QoQ

Revenue$1.8B+21.32%

Gross profit

$336M+40.62%

19.01% margin

Operating income

$224M+76.91%

12.70% margin

Pre-tax income

$67M+128.06%

Net income

$14M+105.01%

0.77% margin

Cost of revenue

$1.4B+17.54%

Operating expenses

$111M−0.48%

SG&A $104M

Other operating $7M

Other expense

$157M

Tax$57M+76.03%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 17:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

GDP ×1.45· ±1.9% vs ±1.3% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

GDPgross domestic product±1.9%10 of 19×1.45

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.9%9 of 19×1.42

FOMCrate decision±1.7%13 of 24×1.28

NFPjobs report±1.7%6 of 10×1.27

PPIproducer prices±1.5%3 of 10×1.12

CPIconsumer prices±1.2%6 of 10×0.95

CPROFcorporate profits±1.2%6 of 12×0.90

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.3% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.3% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.07 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 29 '26 · confirmed	0.07	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 30 '26 · confirmed	-6.36	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 30 '26 · confirmed	-0.96	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod