How often does Granite Ridge Resources move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

GRNTNYSECrude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. (GRNT) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

4.67

−0.44 · −8.69%

Regular session14:36 ET

Open5.18Volume1.7MMkt cap$668.5MEPS-0.21Div yield8.61%

Day4.67 – 5.180%52-wk3.91 – 5.9737%

GRNT

Granite Ridge Resources, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

after close · in 1 day

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+4.72%

vs ±11.5% implied · ×0.41

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 6 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

13F top-10 QoQ

+0.60%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

171 managers

Top fund weight

0.01%

GRNT weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Granite Ridge Resources (GRNT) is expected to report on Nov 5 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±11.0%
avg realized: ±4.8%

Nov 7 '24Nov 7 '24confirmed±19.8%▲+2.68%×0.14

Mar 6 '25Mar 6 '25confirmed±5.3%▲+1.13%×0.21

May 8 '25May 8 '25confirmed±4.6%▲+1.37%×0.30

Aug 7 '25Aug 7 '25confirmed±6.9%▲+7.17%×1.04

Q3 FY25Nov 6 '25confirmed±14.0%▼−4.63%×0.33

Q1 FY26Mar 5 '26confirmed±15.3%▼−5.99%×0.39

May 7 '26May 7 '26confirmed±10.5%▼−10.71%×1.02

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±11.5%▲+4.72%×0.41

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q2 FY26±11.5%▲+4.72%×0.41

May '26±10.5%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 1 expiry · Nov 3 close

0.02OI · 1 expiry · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Jan 15 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

22−21%Jan 1572d1,118+2%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Jan 1572d22−21%1,118+2%0.02

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

20.09%as filednet margin · revenue +16.38% QoQ · +36.67% YoY

Revenue

$149M+16.38% QoQ

Gross profit

$119M+21.02% QoQ

79.93% margin

Operating income

$39M+162.76% QoQ

26.14% margin

Pre-tax income

$39M+164.07% QoQ

Net income

$30M+163.78% QoQ

20.09% margin

Cost of revenue

$30M+0.95% QoQ

Operating expenses

$80M−4.11% QoQ

Other operating $53M

Marketing $9M

SG&A $9M

Other operating $9M

Other expense

$148,000

Tax

$9M+165.08% QoQ

Revenue$149M+16.38%

Gross profit

$119M+21.02%

79.93% margin

Operating income

$39M+162.76%

26.14% margin

Pre-tax income

$39M+164.07%

Net income

$30M+163.78%

20.09% margin

Cost of revenue

$30M+0.95%

Operating expenses

$80M−4.11%

Other operating $53M

Marketing $9M

SG&A $9M

Other expense

$148,000

Tax$9M+165.08%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 14:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.92· ±3.4% vs ±1.8% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±3.4%4 of 10×1.92

FOMCrate decision±1.8%13 of 24×1.02

PPIproducer prices±1.8%3 of 10×1.01

CPIconsumer prices±1.6%5 of 10×0.89

CPROFcorporate profits±1.5%6 of 12×0.82

GDPgross domestic product±1.4%9 of 19×0.79

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.2%7 of 19×0.70

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±1.8% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.8% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.23 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	0.23	—
Q1 FY26	Mar 5 '26 · confirmed	-0.36	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 6 '25 · confirmed	0.11	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod