How often does Forward Air move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 7 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

FWRDNasdaqArrangement of Transportation of Freight & Cargo

Forward Air Corp (FWRD) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

17.62

−0.26 · −1.43%

post 17.62 0.00%

Closed16:00 ET

Open17.28Volume441,748Mkt cap$595.2MEPS-8.89

Day17.28 – 18.0543%52-wk7.86 – 31.1842%

FWRD

Forward Air Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 4

after close · in 4 days

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+15.51%

vs ±14.6% implied · ×1.06

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 5 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Linked news

5dGS · supplierGoldman Sachs slashes Kospi target to 9,000 but still sees over 60% upside

News

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+19.16%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26123d lag

187 managers

Top fund weight

0.01%

FWRD weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

3 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Forward Air (FWRD) is expected to report on Nov 4 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 7≥ implied

avg implied: ±15.8%
avg realized: ±13.4%

Jan 6 '25Jan 6 '25confirmed—▼−2.46%—

Feb 26 '25Feb 26 '25confirmed±14.9%▼−10.68%×0.72

May 7 '25May 7 '25confirmed±15.7%▲+0.23%×0.01

Aug 11 '25Aug 11 '25confirmed±14.4%▲+1.93%×0.13

Q3 FY25Nov 5 '25confirmed±18.9%▲+18.15%×0.96

Q1 FY26Feb 23 '26confirmed±16.2%▲+4.55%×0.28

May 7 '26May 7 '26confirmed±15.7%▼−43.05%×2.74

Q2 FY26Aug 5 '26confirmed±14.6%▲+15.51%×1.06

quarterimplied−45%0+45%realized×

Q2 FY26±14.6%▲+15.51%×1.06

May '26±15.7%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Oct 29 close

0.76OI · 3 expiries · Oct 29 closeP/C open interest · Dec 18 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

7900%Dec 1848d1,0420%

667−2%Jan 1576d0.079,1050%0.07

211+1818%Mar 19139d0.287670%0.28

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Dec 1848d7900%1,0420%0.76

Jan 1576d667−2%9,1050%0.07

Mar 19139d211+1818%7670%0.28

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

−36.54%as filednet margin · revenue +15.63% QoQ · +8.76% YoY

Revenue$673M+15.63%

Gross profit$536M79.69%−7.06%

Operating income−$201M−29.91%−1084.84%

Pre-tax income−$244M−535.41%

Net income−$246M−36.54%−511.80%

Cost of revenue$137M+2674.18%

Operating expenses$738M+32.51%

Tax−$174,000−109.70%

Other expense−$43M+27.41%

Source: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · bars = % of revenue

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 16:00 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×2.61· ±8.2% vs ±3.1% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±8.2%5 of 10×2.61

CPIconsumer prices±4.4%5 of 10×1.41

GDPgross domestic product±2.8%9 of 19×0.90

CPROFcorporate profits±2.5%8 of 12×0.81

FOMCrate decision±2.5%7 of 24×0.79

PPIproducer prices±2.3%5 of 10×0.72

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.1%7 of 19×0.68

Bar = avg |move| to ±9% · tick = ±3.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±3.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS -6.38 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 5 '26 · confirmed	-6.38	—
Q1 FY26	Feb 23 '26 · confirmed	-1.09	—
Q3 FY25	Nov 5 '25 · confirmed	-0.52	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod