What move does the options market price into Comfort Systems USA's report?

Implied ±7.4%, either direction.

How often does Comfort Systems USA move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

FIXNYSEElectrical Work

Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

1,286.12

+85.98 · +7.16%

post 1,263.66 −1.75%

After hours19:38 ETdelayed

Open1,206.81Volume534,130Mkt cap$42.0BP/E27.26EPS46.35Div yield0.25%

Day1,206.81 – 1,304.6458%52-wk840.46 – 2,072.1034%

FIX

Comfort Systems USA Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±7.4%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±9.4%·×0.79·cheap

1,189.501,380.76

straddle ±23.3%

spot 1,285.13exp Feb 19ATM strike 1280ATM straddle 352.35IV 64%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 18

after close · in 107 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−9.26%

vs ±14.2% implied · ×0.65

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 22 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Supply chain

13F top-10 QoQ

−1.39%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

1,352 managers

Top fund weight

1.21%

FIX weight · XLI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

11 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Comfort Systems USA (FIX) is expected to report on Feb 18 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±11.2%
avg realized: ±9.4%

Feb 20 '25Feb 20 '25confirmed±7.9%▼−4.74%×0.60

Apr 24 '25Apr 24 '25confirmed±9.8%▲+5.64%×0.57

Jul 24 '25Jul 24 '25confirmed±8.7%▲+22.37%×2.59

Oct 23 '25Oct 23 '25confirmed±11.3%▲+18.99%×1.67

Feb 19 '26Feb 19 '26confirmed±9.4%▲+6.46%×0.69

Q1 FY26Apr 23 '26confirmed±12.6%▼−2.69%×0.21

Q2 FY26Jul 23 '26confirmed±15.4%▼−5.33%×0.35

Q3 FY26Oct 22 '26confirmed±14.2%▼−9.26%×0.65

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q3 FY26±14.2%▼−9.26%×0.65

Q2 FY26±15.4%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 5 expiries · Oct 26 close

1.26OI · 5 expiries · Oct 26 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

2,700+18%Nov 2017d0.873,119+56%0.87

4,6950%Dec 1845d1.273,690+8%1.27

1,407+10%Jan 1573d0.592,366+21%0.59

report · Feb 18 · after close · est.

244+112%Feb 19108d194+56%

205+42%Apr 16164d0.64319+7%0.64

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2017d2,700+18%3,119+56%0.87

Dec 1845d4,6950%3,690+8%1.27

Jan 1573d1,407+10%2,366+21%0.59

report · Feb 18 · after close · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±23.3%

Funds 4

XLI±0.3%

FTC±0.2%

VIG±0.1%

VUG±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

12.98%as filednet margin · revenue +15.33% QoQ · +53.67% YoY

Revenue

$3.8B+15.33% QoQ

Gross profit

$934M+10.69% QoQ

24.81% margin

Operating income

$625M+11.94% QoQ

16.58% margin

Pre-tax income

$635M+12.15% QoQ

Net income

$489M+10.74% QoQ

12.98% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.8B+16.95% QoQ

Operating expenses

$310M+8.26% QoQ

Tax

$146M+17.15% QoQ

Other income

$10M+26.69% QoQ

Revenue$3.8B+15.33%

Gross profit

$934M+10.69%

24.81% margin

Operating income

$625M+11.94%

16.58% margin

Pre-tax income

$635M+12.15%

Net income

$489M+10.74%

12.98% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.8B+16.95%

Operating expenses

$310M+8.26%

Other income$10M+26.69%

Tax$146M+17.15%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×1.38· ±3.2% vs ±2.3% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±3.2%8 of 10×1.38

NFPjobs report±3.1%5 of 10×1.34

GDPgross domestic product±2.9%11 of 19×1.26

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.7%10 of 19×1.15

FOMCrate decision±2.5%17 of 24×1.07

CPROFcorporate profits±2.0%7 of 12×0.87

PPIproducer prices±1.9%3 of 10×0.82

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±2.3% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.3% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 13.91 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 22 '26 · confirmed	13.91	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 23 '26 · confirmed	12.53	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 23 '26 · confirmed	10.51	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod