What move does the options market price into Comfort Systems USA's report?

Implied ±8.5%, either direction.

How often does Comfort Systems USA move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

FIXNYSEElectrical Work

Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

1,089.57

−195.56 · −15.22%

post 1,086.30 −0.30%

After hours19:33 ETdelayed

Open1,269.99Volume1.7MMkt cap$38.2BP/E23.44EPS46.35Div yield0.27%

Day1,061.14 – 1,293.9811%52-wk840.46 – 2,072.1020%

FIX

Comfort Systems USA Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±8.5%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±9.4%·×0.90·fair

998.241,184.38

straddle ±24.6%

spot 1,091.31exp Feb 19ATM strike 1100ATM straddle 316.25IV 67%

Nov 4 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 18

after close · in 106 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−9.26%

vs ±14.2% implied · ×0.65

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 22 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Supply chain

13F top-10 QoQ

−1.39%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

1,352 managers

Top fund weight

1.21%

FIX weight · XLI

N-PORTJun 30 '26

11 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Comfort Systems USA (FIX) is expected to report on Feb 18 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±11.2%
avg realized: ±9.4%

Feb 20 '25Feb 20 '25confirmed±7.9%▼−4.74%×0.60

Apr 24 '25Apr 24 '25confirmed±9.8%▲+5.64%×0.57

Jul 24 '25Jul 24 '25confirmed±8.7%▲+22.37%×2.59

Oct 23 '25Oct 23 '25confirmed±11.3%▲+18.99%×1.67

Feb 19 '26Feb 19 '26confirmed±9.4%▲+6.46%×0.69

Q1 FY26Apr 23 '26confirmed±12.6%▼−2.69%×0.21

Q2 FY26Jul 23 '26confirmed±15.4%▼−5.33%×0.35

Q3 FY26Oct 22 '26confirmed±14.2%▼−9.26%×0.65

quarterimplied−25%0+25%realized×

Q3 FY26±14.2%▼−9.26%×0.65

Q2 FY26±15.4%▼−5.33%×0.35

Q1 FY26±12.6%▼−2.69%×0.21

Feb '26±9.4%▲+6.46%×0.69

Oct '25±11.3%▲+18.99%×1.67

Jul '25±8.7%▲+22.37%×2.59

2 older reports

Apr '25±9.8%▲+5.64%×0.57

Feb '25±7.9%▼−4.74%×0.60

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 5 expiries · Nov 3 close

1.38OI · 5 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Feb 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

2,991+11%Nov 2016d0.823,642+17%0.82

4,881+4%Dec 1844d1.303,764+2%1.30

1,497+6%Jan 1572d0.632,383+1%0.63

report · Feb 18 · after close · est.

529+117%Feb 19107d384+98%

298+45%Apr 16163d0.52568+78%0.52

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d2,991+11%3,642+17%0.82

Dec 1844d4,881+4%3,764+2%1.30

Jan 1572d1,497+6%2,383+1%0.63

report · Feb 18 · after close · est.

Feb 19107d529+117%384+98%1.38

Apr 16163d298+45%568+78%0.52

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±24.6%

Funds 4

XLI±0.3%

FTC±0.2%

VIG±0.1%

VUG±0.1%

Dashed = straddleMethod 2 more funds Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

12.98%as filednet margin · revenue +15.33% QoQ · +53.67% YoY

Revenue

$3.8B+15.33% QoQ

Gross profit

$934M+10.69% QoQ

24.81% margin

Operating income

$625M+11.94% QoQ

16.58% margin

Pre-tax income

$635M+12.15% QoQ

Net income

$489M+10.74% QoQ

12.98% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.8B+16.95% QoQ

Operating expenses

$310M+8.26% QoQ

Tax

$146M+17.15% QoQ

Other income

$10M+26.69% QoQ

Revenue$3.8B+15.33%

Gross profit

$934M+10.69%

24.81% margin

Operating income

$625M+11.94%

16.58% margin

Pre-tax income

$635M+12.15%

Net income

$489M+10.74%

12.98% margin

Cost of revenue

$2.8B+16.95%

Operating expenses

$310M+8.26%

Other income$10M+26.69%

Tax$146M+17.15%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 4 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×1.42· ±3.4% vs ±2.4% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±3.4%8 of 11×1.42

NFPjobs report±3.1%5 of 10×1.31

GDPgross domestic product±2.8%11 of 20×1.20

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.6%10 of 20×1.10

FOMCrate decision±2.6%17 of 24×1.09

PPIproducer prices±2.1%3 of 11×0.88

CPROFcorporate profits±2.0%7 of 12×0.85

Bar = avg |move| to ±4% · tick = ±2.4% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±2.4% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 13.91 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 22 '26 · confirmed	13.91	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 23 '26 · confirmed	12.53	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 23 '26 · confirmed	10.51	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod