How often does Fedex move more than the options market prices?

0 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

FDXNYSEAir Courier Services

Fedex Corp (FDX) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

314.12

pre 313.50 +0.07%

Pre-market09:14 ET

Open307.22Volume2.7MMkt cap$73.4BP/E19.54EPS16.04Div yield27.42%

Day307.22 – 318.0158%52-wk194.91 – 342.7380%

FDX

Fedex Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Dec 21

after close · in 49 days

est.Q4 FY27

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+1.06%

vs ±4.9% implied · ×0.22

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 28 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

35.00%

of Air T revenue

supplierAIRT 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+2.17%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26125d lag

1,967 managers

Top fund weight

2.89%

FDX weight · SEA

N-PORTJun 30 '26

12 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Fedex (FDX) is expected to report on Dec 21 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

0 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±5.1%
avg realized: ±1.4%

Jun 24 '25Jun 24 '25confirmed±6.2%▼−3.27%×0.53

Sep 18 '25Sep 18 '25confirmed±7.1%▲+2.32%×0.33

Q2 FY26Dec 18 '25confirmed±5.2%▲+0.58%×0.11

Q3 FY26Mar 19 '26confirmed±4.6%▲+0.77%×0.17

Q4 FY26Jun 23 '26confirmed±5.9%▼−0.13%×0.02

Jul 21 '26Jul 21 '26confirmed±2.2%▲+1.85%×0.85

Oct 28 '26Oct 28 '26confirmed±4.9%▲+1.06%×0.22

Q1 FY27Oct 28 '26confirmed±4.9%▲+1.06%×0.22

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q1 FY27±4.9%▲+1.06%×0.22

Oct '26±4.9%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 close

1.57OI · 10 expiries · Oct 30 closeP/C open interest · Jan 15 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

5 nearer expiries

1,865+87%Nov 64d0.1810,455+813%0.18

1,034+44%Nov 1311d0.541,906+95%0.54

4,036+8%Nov 2018d1.183,409+41%1.18

400+32%Nov 2725d1.65243+684%1.65

7+40%Dec 432d0.888+167%0.88

19—Dec 1139d0.07257—0.07

7,483+4%Dec 1846d0.957,887+3%0.95

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

5 nearer expiries

Nov 64d1,865+87%10,455+813%0.18

Nov 1311d1,034+44%1,906+95%0.54

Nov 2018d4,036+8%3,409

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ1 FY27

1.27%as filednet margin · revenue −28.81% QoQ · +2.75% YoY

Revenue

$22.9B−28.81% QoQ

Gross profit

$5.7B−16.72% QoQ

25.02% margin

Operating income

$1.1B−31.21% QoQ

4.67% margin

Pre-tax income

$424M−79.88% QoQ

Net income

$290M−81.84% QoQ

1.27% margin

Cost of revenue

$17.1B−32.10% QoQ

Operating expenses

$4.7B−12.49% QoQ

SG&A $3.7B

Depreciation $967M

Other expense

$643M

Tax

$134M−73.73% QoQ

Revenue$22.9B−28.81%

Gross profit

$5.7B−16.72%

25.02% margin

Operating income

$1.1B−31.21%

4.67% margin

Pre-tax income

$424M−79.88%

Net income

$290M−81.84%

1.27% margin

Cost of revenue

$17.1B−32.10%

Operating expenses

$4.7B−12.49%

SG&A $3.7B

Depreciation $967M

Other expense

$643M

Tax$134M−73.73%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 17:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.30· ±1.6% vs ±1.3% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±1.6%5 of 10×1.30

GDPgross domestic product±1.3%11 of 19×1.01

FOMCrate decision±1.3%12 of 24×0.99

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.2%10 of 19×0.91

CPIconsumer prices±1.1%5 of 10×0.87

NFPjobs report±1.0%6 of 10×0.79

CPROFcorporate profits±1.0%8 of 12×0.77

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.3% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.3% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 1.21 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q1 FY27	Oct 28 '26 · confirmed	1.21	—
Q4 FY26	Jun 23 '26 · confirmed	6.64	—
Q3 FY26	Mar 19 '26 · confirmed	4.41	—
Q2 FY26	Dec 18 '25 · confirmed	4.04	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod