How often does EMCOR move more than the options market prices?

2 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

EMENYSEElectrical Work

EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

633.81

−73.62 · −10.41%

post 645.78 +1.89%

After hours16:18 ETdelayed

Open708.90Volume483,481Mkt cap$31.0BP/E18.61EPS34.70Div yield0.23%

Day630.58 – 712.1919%52-wk563.71 – 950.9621%

EME

EMCOR Group, Inc.

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Feb 25

before open · in 113 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+1.59%

vs ±9.5% implied · ×0.17

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 29 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

filed ties

13F top-10 QoQ

−5.15%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

1,248 managers

Top fund weight

0.94%

EME weight · FTC

N-PORTJul 31 '26

9 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

EMCOR (EME) is expected to report on Feb 25 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

2 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±8.6%
avg realized: ±7.3%

Feb 26 '25Feb 26 '25confirmed±8.8%▲+5.74%×0.65

Apr 30 '25Apr 30 '25confirmed±8.1%▼−2.98%×0.37

Jul 31 '25Jul 31 '25confirmed±6.3%▼−1.85%×0.29

Oct 30 '25Oct 30 '25confirmed±8.8%▼−16.60%×1.90

Feb 26 '26Feb 26 '26confirmed±9.0%▼−6.94%×0.77

Q1 FY26Apr 29 '26confirmed±8.0%▼−3.52%×0.44

Q2 FY26Jul 30 '26confirmed±10.5%▲+19.32%×1.85

Q3 FY26Oct 29 '26confirmed±9.5%▲+1.59%×0.17

quarterimplied−20%0+20%realized×

Q3 FY26±9.5%▲+1.59%×0.17

Q2 FY26±10.5%▲+19.32%×1.85

Q1 FY26±8.0%▼−3.52%×0.44

Feb '26±9.0%▼−6.94%×0.77

Oct '25±8.8%▼−16.60%×1.90

Jul '25±6.3%▼−1.85%×0.29

2 older reports

Apr '25±8.1%▼−2.98%×0.37

Feb '25±8.8%▲+5.74%×0.65

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 4 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.80OI · 4 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Apr 16 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

573+9%Nov 2016d0.69834+47%0.69

950+1%Dec 1844d0.352,711+1%0.35

702−4%Jan 1572d0.691,020+4%0.69

report · Feb 25 · before open · est.

356+5%Apr 16163d444+1%

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d573+9%834+47%0.69

Dec 1844d950+1%2,711+1%0.35

Jan 1572d702−4%1,020+4%0.69

report · Feb 25 · before open · est.

Apr 16163d356+5%444+1%0.80

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ3 FY26

7.22%as filednet margin · revenue +7.50% QoQ · +28.83% YoY

Revenue

$5.5B+7.50% QoQ

Gross profit

$1.1B+8.40% QoQ

20.00% margin

Operating income

$546M−0.28% QoQ

9.85% margin

Pre-tax income

$550M−0.38% QoQ

Net income

$400M−0.93% QoQ

7.22% margin

Cost of revenue

$4.4B+7.28% QoQ

Operating expenses

$562M+18.40% QoQ

SG&A $528M

Other operating $34M

Tax

$150M+1.12% QoQ

Other income

$4M−12.86% QoQ

Revenue$5.5B+7.50%

Gross profit

$1.1B+8.40%

20.00% margin

Operating income

$546M−0.28%

9.85% margin

Pre-tax income

$550M−0.38%

Net income

$400M−0.93%

7.22% margin

Cost of revenue

$4.4B+7.28%

Operating expenses

$562M+18.40%

SG&A $528M

Other operating $34M

Other income$4M−12.86%

Tax$150M+1.12%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 16:15 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PCE ×1.72· ±2.9% vs ±1.7% · 19 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PCEpersonal income & outlays±2.9%9 of 19×1.72

GDPgross domestic product±2.8%10 of 19×1.65

CPIconsumer prices±2.2%7 of 10×1.29

NFPjobs report±2.1%6 of 10×1.24

FOMCrate decision±1.4%15 of 24×0.84

CPROFcorporate profits±1.4%6 of 12×0.82

PPIproducer prices±1.3%3 of 10×0.80

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.7% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.7% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 9.04 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q3 FY26	Oct 29 '26 · confirmed	9.04	—
Q2 FY26	Jul 30 '26 · confirmed	9.06	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 29 '26 · confirmed	6.84	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod