What move does the options market price into Casella Waste Systems's report?

Implied ±5.3%, either direction.

How often does Casella Waste Systems move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

CWSTNasdaqRefuse Systems

Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

99.17

+2.94 · +3.06%

Regular session15:49 ET

Open96.50Volume561,153Mkt cap$6.1BP/E1101.90EPS0.09

Day96.50 – 99.6485%52-wk74.05 – 107.9674%

CWST

Casella Waste Systems Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

Inputs

±5.3%implied · report alone

8Q avg ±4.1%·×1.29·rich

91.16101.30

straddle ±7.5%

spot 96.23exp Nov 20ATM strike 95ATM straddle 8.50IV 51%

Nov 3 closereport share · term structure

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Nov 5

after close · in 1 day

est.Q3 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

−1.16%

vs ±6.6% implied · ×0.18

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Aug 6 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

—

Supply chain

13F top-10 QoQ

+4.41%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26127d lag

415 managers

Top fund weight

0.19%

CWST weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

4 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Casella Waste Systems (CWST) is expected to report on Nov 5 after close (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±5.8%
avg realized: ±4.1%

Oct 30 '24Oct 30 '24confirmed±6.5%▼−3.37%×0.52

Feb 12 '25Feb 12 '25confirmed±4.0%▲+0.06%×0.01

May 1 '25May 1 '25confirmed±5.9%▼−0.49%×0.08

Q2 FY25Jul 31 '25confirmed±5.0%▼−5.29%×1.06

Oct 30 '25Oct 30 '25confirmed±6.6%▲+6.92%×1.05

Feb 19 '26Feb 19 '26confirmed±3.8%▼−5.75%×1.50

Q1 FY26Apr 30 '26confirmed±7.7%▲+9.56%×1.24

Q2 FY26Aug 6 '26confirmed±6.6%▼−1.16%×0.18

quarterimplied−10%0+10%realized×

Q2 FY26±6.6%▼−1.16%×0.18

Q1 FY26±7.7%▲+9.56%×1.24

Feb '26±3.8%▼−5.75%×1.50

Oct '25±6.6%▲+6.92%×1.05

Q2 FY25±5.0%▼−5.29%×1.06

May '25±5.9%▼−0.49%×0.08

2 older reports

Feb '25±4.0%▲+0.06%×0.01

Oct '24±6.5%▼−3.37%×0.52

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 3 expiries · Nov 3 close

0.88OI · 3 expiries · Nov 3 closeP/C open interest · Nov 20 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

3760%Nov 2016d428+2%

42+2%Dec 1844d0.34125+1%0.34

480%Mar 19135d0.65740%0.65

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2016d3760%428+2%0.88

Dec 1844d42+2%125+1%0.34

Mar 19135d480%740%0.65

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

scenario · straddle±7.5%

Funds 4

IWM±0.0%

UWM±0.0%

VTI±0.0%

VT±0.0%

Dashed = straddleMethod Source: SEC filings · N-PORT · market data

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

0.69%as filednet margin · revenue +18.90% QoQ · +16.85% YoY

Revenue

$544M+18.90% QoQ

Gross profit

$179M+20.48% QoQ

32.88% margin

Operating income

$20M+311.20% QoQ

3.67% margin

Pre-tax income

$3M+138.13% QoQ

Net income

$4M+168.06% QoQ

0.69% margin

Cost of revenue

$365M+18.13% QoQ

Operating expenses

$159M+10.65% QoQ

Depreciation $88M

SG&A $63M

Other operating $1M

Other operating $6M

Other expense

$17M

Tax benefit

$405,000

Revenue$544M+18.90%

Gross profit

$179M+20.48%

32.88% margin

Operating income

$20M+311.20%

3.67% margin

Pre-tax income

$3M+138.13%

Net income

$4M+168.06%

0.69% margin

Cost of revenue

$365M+18.13%

Operating expenses

$159M+10.65%

Depreciation $88M

SG&A $63M

Other operating $1M

Other expense

$17M

Tax benefit$405,000

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Long dash = implied range · Nov 3 close · Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 15:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

NFP ×1.68· ±2.2% vs ±1.3% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

NFPjobs report±2.2%5 of 10×1.68

GDPgross domestic product±1.6%10 of 19×1.20

FOMCrate decision±1.5%8 of 24×1.15

PPIproducer prices±1.4%3 of 10×1.06

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.4%10 of 19×1.05

CPIconsumer prices±1.3%6 of 10×1.02

CPROFcorporate profits±1.1%8 of 12×0.81

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.3% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.3% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.06 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Aug 6 '26 · confirmed	0.06	—
Q1 FY26	Apr 30 '26 · confirmed	-0.09	—
Q2 FY25	Jul 31 '25 · confirmed	0.08	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod