How often does Chevron move more than the options market prices?

3 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

CVXNYSEPetroleum Refining

Chevron Corp (CVX) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

235.59

+4.13 · +1.78%

post 235.54 −0.02%

Closed19:38 ET

Open235.37Volume11.0MMkt cap$465.3BP/E22.56EPS10.44Div yield2.99%

Day234.23 – 236.6255%52-wk142.51 – 236.4899%

CVX

Chevron Corp

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 29

before open · in 90 days

est.Q4 FY26

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+1.75%

vs ±2.1% implied · ×0.85

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 30 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

12.00%

of Talos Energy revenue

supplierTALO 10-K

Supply chain

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+1.38%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26124d lag

4,132 managers

Top fund weight

16.09%

CVX weight · XLE

N-PORTJun 30 '26

12 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Chevron (CVX) is expected to report on Jan 29 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

3 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±2.3%
avg realized: ±2.2%

Jan 31 '25Jan 31 '25confirmed±2.2%▼−4.56%×2.08

May 2 '25May 2 '25confirmed±2.5%▲+1.64%×0.66

Aug 1 '25Aug 1 '25confirmed±2.1%▼−0.16%×0.08

Q3 FY25Oct 31 '25confirmed±2.0%▲+2.74%×1.35

Jan 30 '26Jan 30 '26confirmed±2.0%▲+3.34%×1.65

Q1 FY26May 1 '26confirmed±2.3%▼−1.39%×0.59

Q2 FY26Jul 31 '26confirmed±3.4%▲+2.35%×0.69

Oct 30 '26Oct 30 '26confirmed±2.1%▲+1.75%×0.85

quarterimplied−5%0+5%realized×

Oct '26±2.1%▲+1.75%×0.85

Q2 FY26±3.4%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 9 expiries · Oct 29 close

1.07OI · 9 expiries · Oct 29 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

6 nearer expiries

3,301+1%Nov 66d0.447,549+6%0.44

2,282+5%Nov 1313d0.703,266+10%0.70

18,2910%Nov 2020d0.3158,0850%0.31

1,217+67%Nov 2727d0.771,580+13%0.77

230—Dec 434d1.97117—1.97

0—Dec 1141d—0——

45,920+1%Dec 1848d0.8951,438+1%0.89

69,8690%Jan 1576d1.0070,1410%1.00

report · Jan 29 · before open · est.

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

6 nearer expiries

Nov 66d3,301+1%7,549+6%0.44

Nov 1313d2,282+5%3,266+10%0.70

Nov 2020d18,2910%58,085

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY26

17.43%as filednet margin · revenue +44.13% QoQ · +56.30% YoY

Revenue

$70.1B+44.13% QoQ

Gross profit

$33.4B+64.43% QoQ

47.75% margin

Operating income

$17.0B+297.02% QoQ

24.32% margin

Pre-tax income

$16.7B+322.81% QoQ

Net income

$12.2B+432.66% QoQ

17.43% margin

Cost of revenue

$36.6B+29.51% QoQ

Operating expenses

$16.4B+2.25% QoQ

SG&A $8.8B

Depreciation $6.1B

Other operating $1.3B

Other operating $256M

Other expense

$352M

Tax

$4.5B+170.42% QoQ

Revenue$70.1B+44.13%

Gross profit

$33.4B+64.43%

47.75% margin

Operating income

$17.0B+297.02%

24.32% margin

Pre-tax income

$16.7B+322.81%

Net income

$12.2B+432.66%

17.43% margin

Cost of revenue

$36.6B+29.51%

Operating expenses

$16.4B+2.25%

SG&A $8.8B

Depreciation $6.1B

Other operating $1.3B

Other expense

$352M

Tax$4.5B+170.42%

flow · deduction · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Jun 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ down · bars = volume, 15mSource: market data · 19:30 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

PPI ×1.22· ±1.3% vs ±1.1% · 11 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

PPIproducer prices±1.3%6 of 11×1.22

FOMCrate decision±1.2%13 of 24×1.16

NFPjobs report±1.2%4 of 10×1.13

CPIconsumer prices±1.1%7 of 11×1.03

PCEpersonal income & outlays±0.9%8 of 20×0.81

GDPgross domestic product±0.7%13 of 20×0.66

CPROFcorporate profits±0.6%8 of 12×0.55

Bar = avg |move| to ±2% · tick = ±1.1% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.1% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 6.11 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY26	Jul 31 '26 · confirmed	6.11	—
Q1 FY26	May 1 '26 · confirmed	1.11	—
Q3 FY25	Oct 31 '25 · confirmed	1.82	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod