How often does Commvault Systems move more than the options market prices?

4 of the last 8 reports moved at least as far as the implied move.

CVLTNasdaqServices-Prepackaged Software

Commvault Systems Inc (CVLT) earnings date, market-implied expected move, and options open interest by expiry

160.96

pre 164.01 +1.88%

Pre-market15:59 ETdelayed

Open164.00Volume602,933Mkt cap$6.6BP/E83.25EPS1.97

Day162.57 – 164.6270%52-wk71.75 – 174.2590%

CVLT

Commvault Systems Inc

OpenVolumeMkt capP/EEPSDiv yield

Day – 52-wk –

Expected move

No implied move.

Expected move

Inputs

Next report

Jan 26

before open · in 82 days

est.Q3 FY27

Calendar

Next report

Last report

+2.87%

vs ±13.3% implied · ×0.22

shaded = implied · ▲▼ = realized

Oct 27 '26 · confirmed

Implied vs realized

Largest filed tie

32.00%

of CVLT revenue · Partner A

customerCVLT 10-K

Largest filed tie

13F top-10 QoQ

+19.35%

shares held · 10 largest managers

13F · Jun 30 '26128d lag

434 managers

Top fund weight

0.20%

CVLT weight · IWM

N-PORTJun 30 '26

5 funds

Last reportshaded = implied▲▼ = realized× = |realized| ÷ implied

Commvault Systems (CVLT) is expected to report on Jan 26 before open (estimated date).

Implied vs realized

8 reports

4 of 8≥ implied

avg implied: ±12.9%
avg realized: ±12.7%

Jan 28 '25Jan 28 '25confirmed±15.3%▲+1.11%×0.07

Apr 29 '25Apr 29 '25confirmed±13.3%▲+1.67%×0.13

Jul 29 '25Jul 29 '25confirmed±11.4%▲+18.26%×1.60

Oct 28 '25Oct 28 '25confirmed±13.9%▼−16.29%×1.18

Q3 FY26Jan 27 '26confirmed±11.9%▼−31.10%×2.62

Q4 FY26Apr 28 '26confirmed±12.2%▲+10.82%×0.89

Q1 FY27Jul 28 '26confirmed±12.3%▼−19.70%×1.60

Q2 FY27Oct 27 '26confirmed±13.3%▲+2.87%×0.22

quarterimplied−35%0+35%realized×

Q2 FY27±13.3%▲+2.87%×0.22

Q1 FY27±12.3%

Shaded = implied · tick ▲▼ = realized · × = |realized| ÷ impliedSource: options EOD · implied at prior close · realized close to close

Implied vs realized

Positioning

OI · 5 expiries · Nov 4 close

0.30OI · 5 expiries · Nov 4 closeP/C open interest · Mar 19 · first expiry after the report

PUTS · chgexpiry · days · P/CCALLS · chgP/C

8080%Nov 2015d1.93418+1%1.93

5700%Dec 1843d0.341,6720%0.34

4950%Jan 1571d0.776440%0.77

report · Jan 26 · before open · est.

550%Mar 19134d186+1%

70%Apr 16162d0.39180%0.39

ExpiryPutsCallsP/C

Nov 2015d8080%418+1%1.93

Dec 1843d5700%1,6720%0.34

Jan 1571d4950%6440%0.77

report · Jan 26 · before open · est.

Hatched = puts · solid = calls · bars scaled per expiry · chg = OI vs prior sessionSource: options EOD

Positioning

Linked exposure

No implied move.

Linked exposure

Revenue flow

as filedQ2 FY27

9.32%as filednet margin · revenue −0.55% QoQ · +13.11% YoY

Revenue

$312M−0.55% QoQ

Gross profit

$254M−1.17% QoQ

81.15% margin

Operating income

$30M+18.11% QoQ

9.72% margin

Pre-tax income

$39M+20.35% QoQ

Net income

$29M+37.71% QoQ

9.32% margin

Cost of revenue

$59M+2.19% QoQ

Operating expenses

$223M−3.32% QoQ

Marketing $136M

R&D $42M

SG&A $42M

Other operating $3M

Tax

$10M−12.84% QoQ

Other income

$8M+29.21% QoQ

Revenue$312M−0.55%

Gross profit

$254M−1.17%

81.15% margin

Operating income

$30M+18.11%

9.72% margin

Pre-tax income

$39M+20.35%

Net income

$29M+37.71%

9.32% margin

Cost of revenue

$59M+2.19%

Operating expenses

$223M−3.32%

Marketing $136M

R&D $42M

SG&A $42M

Other income$8M+29.21%

Tax$10M−12.84%

flow · deduction · inflow · signed % = QoQSource: SEC filings · standardized · QE Sep 30 '26 · width = $

Revenue flow

Intraday

15m bars

Hatch = extended hours · ▯ up · ▮ downSource: market data · 15:45 ET

Intraday

Event sensitivity

CPI ×1.12· ±2.1% vs ±1.9% · 10 releases

eventrelease day|move|up · n×base

CPIconsumer prices±2.1%6 of 10×1.12

GDPgross domestic product±2.0%12 of 19×1.07

PPIproducer prices±1.9%3 of 10×1.02

PCEpersonal income & outlays±1.9%9 of 19×1.01

FOMCrate decision±1.9%18 of 24×0.99

CPROFcorporate profits±1.8%11 of 12×0.92

NFPjobs report±1.2%7 of 10×0.63

Bar = avg |move| to ±3% · tick = ±1.9% avg day · ×base = |move| ÷ ±1.9% · min 6 releases

Earnings history

EPS 0.69 · consensus —

Quarter	Reported	EPS	Consensus
Q2 FY27	Oct 27 '26 · confirmed	0.69	—
Q1 FY27	Jul 28 '26 · confirmed	0.50	—
Q4 FY26	Apr 28 '26 · confirmed	0.33	—
Q3 FY26	Jan 27 '26 · confirmed	0.40	—

Source: filed financials

Methodology

ties · implied moves · holdersMethod